One month ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin went on television to announce he was invading Ukraine and warned the West that attempts to intervene could be met with nuclear retaliation.
In the four weeks since then, Russia’s war in Ukraine has killed thousands of people, reduced entire cities to rubble and forced millions to flee their homes. The largest military conflict in Europe since World War II has also upset the international security order and sent dangerous ripples through the global economy.
In early 2021, a buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine raised fears of an offensive. Moscow withdrew some of the forces in April, paving the way for a June summit between President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Their meeting failed to meaningfully ease Russia-U.S. tensions, however.
A renewed buildup of Russian troops along Ukrainian borders began in late October and reached an estimated 150,000 troops by the year’s end. From the beginning of the troop surge, Moscow denied any plans to attack Ukraine, calling such Western concerns part of a campaign to discredit Russia.
At the same time, it urged the U.S. and its allies to keep Ukraine from joining NATO and roll back the alliance forces from Eastern Europe, demands the West rejected as non-starters.
Then on Feb. 21, Putin abruptly upped the ante, recognizing the independence of pro-Russia rebel regions in eastern Ukraine. Insurgents have been fighting Ukrainian forces there since 2014, when Ukraine’s Moscow-friendly president was driven from office by mass protests and Russia responded by annexing the Crimean Peninsula.
In a televised address on Feb. 24, Putin announced the launch of what he called a “special military operation” intended to demilitarize Ukraine and uproot alleged “neo-Nazi nationalists.”
As he spoke, the Russian military unleashed a series of air raids and missile strikes on Ukraine’s military facilities and key infrastructure. Russian troops rolled into Ukraine from Crimea in the south, all along the eastern border and from Moscow’s ally Belarus, which borders Ukraine from the north.
Putin argued that Russia had no choice but to act after Washington and its allies ignored its demand for security guarantees. Western leaders dismissed the claims as a false pretext for the attack.
The invasion was predicted for months by Western intelligence agencies and analysts on social media, but while its effects have shaken the world, perhaps the biggest surprise has been a Russian military campaign widely regarded as disastrous to this point.
That's contrasted with a staunch Ukrainian defense, bolstered by support from dozens of allies including the United States, and inspired by the talismanic Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Russian forces have repeatedly struck the capital, Kyiv, but have failed to encircle the city.
The besieged southern port city of Mariupol has been hardest hit, subject to weeks of bombardment that has killed at least 2,300 people and destroyed most of the city, according to Ukrainian officials. About 100,000 civilians remain trapped in the city without running water, electricity, or heating, and with supplies of food dwindling.
Only one major city, Kherson, has fallen to the Russians.
The war’s death toll is unclear, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who has become a symbol of national resistance – said on Wednesday that thousands of people have been killed, including at least 121 Ukrainian children.
Ukraine says it has killed 14,000 Russian soldiers, and destroyed hundreds of tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery pieces and aircraft. Even conservative US assessments estimate at least 7,000 Russian dead.
The United Nations says more than 3.6 million Ukrainians have now fled the country, and a further 6.5 million have been displaced within Ukraine.
The war has also rattled the global economy and the geopolitical order.
Western allies quickly responded to the invasion with unprecedented economic and financial sanctions.
Several waves of crippling penalties froze an estimated half of Russia’s $640 billion hard-currency reserves, cut key Russian banks out of the SWIFT financial messaging system, barred Moscow from getting cash in dollars and euros and targeted broad sectors of the Russian economy with rigid trade restrictions. Major international companies moved quickly to leave the Russian market.
The severe measures — of a magnitude previously only levied against such countries as Iran and North Korea — sent the ruble into a nosedive, provoked a run on deposits and triggered consumer panic.
Russian authorities responded by introducing tight restrictions on hard-currency transactions and stock markets.
Even as his offensive stalls and the Russian economy shudders under the blow of Western sanctions, Putin shows no sign of backing down.
Despite the plummeting ruble and soaring consumer prices, Russian polls show robust support for Putin. Observers attribute those results to the Kremlin’s massive propaganda campaign and crackdown on dissent.
Putin demands that Ukraine adopt a neutral status, drop its bid to join NATO, agree to demilitarize, recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Crimea and acknowledge the independence of the rebel republics in the Donbas region.
Zelenskyy said earlier this week that Ukraine is ready to discuss a neutral status along with security guarantees that would preclude any further aggression. But he’s said the status of Crimea and the separatist regions could be discussed only after a cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Putin may now hope to gain more ground and negotiate from the position of force to strong-arm Zelenskyy into making concessions. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators say they are still far from drafting a prospective deal that Putin and Zelenskyy could discuss.
The month-old war has posed the biggest foreign policy challenge so far for President Joe Biden, who had hoped to focus on China but instead jetted to Europe on Wednesday to attend an emergency NATO summit.
Biden has been tasked with corralling Washington’s allies against the Kremlin — but without provoking a direct confrontation with a nuclear power.
Western weapons, many of which have been supplied by Washington, have been key in helping Ukraine to hold firm against the Russian advance.
Nevertheless, most experts say victory for either side will be difficult and costly — raising the possibility that the conflict could now descend into an even more violent and attritional new phase.
