Finland and Sweden are hastening toward a decision on whether to join NATO, as Russia’s war in Ukraine deepens security fears across the region.
Opinion polls show surging public support in both countries for abandoning their long-held neutrality and joining the military alliance. Momentum among politicians is growing for membership applications to be submitted as early as June, when NATO leaders hold a summit in Madrid.
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Wednesday that her country will make a call on NATO membership within “weeks rather than months.”
She said she saw no reason to delay the decision, at a joint news conference alongside Sweden's prime minister.
Her comments coincided with a report to the Finnish parliament that said membership of the bloc could result in "increased tensions on the border between Finland and Russia".
Moscow has warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato in recent weeks.
Finland and Sweden are militarily non-aligned but Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted increasing public support to become members of the Western defensive alliance. Swedish leader Magdalena Andersson told reporters that the same "very serious analysis" was taking place as in Finland and she saw no point in delaying it.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 triggered a surge in support for joining NATO in the two traditionally militarily non-aligned Nordic countries, with polls showing a majority of respondents willing to join the alliance in Finland and supporters of NATO in Sweden clearly outnumbering those against the idea.
Finland, a country of 5.5 million, shares the EU’s longest border with Russia, a 1,340-kilometer (833-mile) frontier. Sweden has no border with Russia.
Russia, for its part, has warned Sweden and Finland against joining NATO, with officials saying it would not contribute to stability in Europe.
Officials said Russia would respond to such a move with retaliatory measures that would cause “military and political consequences” for Helsinki and Stockholm. One of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reasons for invading Ukraine was that the country refused to promise that it would not join NATO.
Seperately, a report submitted to the Finnish parliament warned that "military force might be used solely against Finland," and that the security situation in Europe and Finland is more serious and more difficult to predict than at any time since the Cold War.
It also noted that were Finland to join the bloc, it would be forced to spend up to 1.5% more of its budget on defence, but added that membership of the alliance would offer the country a greater capacity to defend itself. Finland has already announced a 40% increase in its defence budget by 2026.
Any potential application would also welcome a bid by neighbouring Sweden to seek membership of the bloc, it added.
“The war started by Russia endangers security and stability in entire Europe,” Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said as he presented the report. “Russia’s attack on Ukraine will have a long-lasting impact on our own security environment. Trust in Russia has plummeted.”
Andersson said Wednesday that the Swedish government is working on a security environment analysis together with all parties in the 349-seat Riksdag legislature. She said the report is due May 31 but could be finished earlier. In addition, Andersson’s Social Democratic Party has initiated its own separate review of Sweden’s security environment.
