Ottawa: Pierre Poilievre, the Opposition Conservative Party leader is the preferred choice as Prime Minister by 40 per cent of Canadian citizens, as incumbent Justin Trudeau lags behind, according to a new Ipsos poll done for Canada-based news platform Global News.
Conservatives have high chances of getting a majority
The gap between Poilievre leaders gives an indication that Conservatives have high chances of getting a majority to form the government in the next elections in 2025 reports Global News. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's polling momentum continues to chug along with 40 per cent of Canadians saying he's the best choice to be PM. His favourables on this question are up five points from a year ago.
On the other hand, the number of respondents who think PM Justin Trudeau is the best choice remains static year-over-year at 31 per cent.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, a Khalistan sympathiser, slipped four points
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, who is a Khalistan sympathiser and a coalition partner of PM Trudeau, has slipped four points since September 2022, with 22 per cent of respondents saying he's the best choice to lead the government.
On core issues facing Canada around the economy, health care and housing, the poll found a plurality of Canadians think Poilievre has the best plans across all three areas.
Diplomatic stand-off between India and Canada
Notably, on the ongoing diplomatic stand-off between India and Canada triggered by Justin Trudeau's s allegations of India's involvement in the killing of the Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Poilievre had stated that the Canadian PM should come out clean with all the facts.
I think the prime minister needs to come clean with all the facts. We need to know all the evidence possible so that Canadians can make judgments on that the prime minister hasn't provided any facts. He provided a statement, Poilievre said in a media address on Tuesday.
IPSOS
Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker said this gap shows the Conservatives could form a majority government if an election was held today.
When you take a look at why Canadians are feeling the way they are right now, [there's] real dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. Particularly when it concerns the big issues that are on their personal agendas, Global News quoted Bricker as saying.
So a real economic set of concerns, he added citing the cost of living, access to housing and inflation.
Regionally, Poilievre's favourables top the list in every province and region except for Quebec. The territories were not included in this poll, Global News reported.
Poll shows Poilievre has pulled ahead as preferred PM
The poll shows Poilievre has pulled ahead as preferred PM in Ontario at 42 per cent, compared to Trudeau's 38 per cent.
When it comes to cities, Bricker says the suburbs will be the battleground in the next election. Downtowns, no they're pretty much a dead zone for the Conservative Party in most parts of the country, Bricker said.
But the suburbs, they're competitive in. Particularly in the car-commuting suburbs around the city of Toronto and other big cities where we've seen the most population growth and the parts of the country that are seeing more seats as we go through redistribution, Global News quoted the Ipsos CEO as saying.
Thin margin
While the Conservatives could potentially form a majority government with this kind of popularity, Bricker said the tighter support levels around Ontario likely mean it would be one with a thin margin. In Atlantic Canada, Poilievre currently enjoys a 20-point lead over Trudeau, with 48 per cent of respondents saying Poilievre would make the best PM.
The Liberals swept the Atlantic ridings on their way to forming a majority government in the 2015 election. In Quebec, the lone province that sees Trudeau as the best bet for PM, he has 34 per cent support against Poilievre's 23 per cent, as per Global News.
Although, Trudeau has maintained that he plans on leading the Liberal Party into the next election, but a majority of respondents don't think that's a good idea. Ipsos results suggest 60 per cent of Canadians think it's time for Trudeau to step aside as leader and let someone else lead the Liberals into the next election. This is up from 54 per cent in a December 2022 poll, Global News reported.
Current situation
Currently, the minority Liberals have a supply and confidence agreement with the NDP. That party has agreed to support the government on confidence matters until the next scheduled election in fall 2025. In exchange, the Liberals agreed to advance key NDP priorities like dentalcare and pharmacare, with legislation expected on the latter by the end of the year.
However, 53 per cent of respondents say it's time for the NDP to stop supporting the Liberals and trigger an election. The remainder believe the NDP should continue supporting the government and not force an election, Global News reported citing the Ipsos poll.
