Ambassador K C Singh, a former Secretary of India’s Ministry of External Affairs and an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, highlighted that while the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas was a trigger, it was the long-standing mistreatment of Palestinians that underpinned the current crisis. Singh noted that the Israeli government's aggressive settlement policies and treatment of Palestinians, particularly in Gaza, have exacerbated tensions.
He pointed out that Israel's intelligence failures contributed to the attack's success, as Hamas had constructed a vast network of underground tunnels that evaded detection. "Israeli intelligence just couldn't see it," Singh explained. This incident has reshaped perceptions of Israel's military strength and its strategy in the region.
The ambassador also emphasized the geopolitical implications of the conflict, particularly in relation to U.S. interests. With U.S. elections approaching, Netanyahu may see an opportunity to act with less restraint, potentially benefiting from a chaotic situation that could favour a Trump presidency. Singh expressed concern that any escalation could lead to a wider confrontation involving Iran, which would inevitably drag neighbouring countries into the conflict.
Singh warned that a military strike on Iranian oil installations could provoke significant retaliation, leading to a dangerous escalation of hostilities. He noted that the Iranian regime, unlike in the past, has solidified its power and would likely rally national support in the face of an external threat, contradicting any assumptions that it might collapse under economic pressure.
The dynamics in the region are complex, with Arab nations like Jordan and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries treading carefully to avoid being caught in the crossfire. Recent diplomatic efforts indicate a desire to maintain stability and avoid conflict escalation, but the situation remains volatile.
Singh concluded that while immediate de-escalation seems unlikely, the hope remains that diplomatic efforts can mitigate the impact of the conflict on the broader region. As tensions rise, the international community watches closely, with the potential for broader consequences looming on the horizon.
