Pune: The announcement by Maratha agitation leader Manoj Jarange-Patil on Sunday night that he will field his own candidates in the election has raised eyebrows.
His campaign for reservation for the Maratha community in jobs and education caused a huge impact in the general election, with the ruling Mahayuti taking a hit because of the anti-establishment tone of the agitators. In fact the BJP, Mahayuti’s biggest constituent, could win only one Lok Sabha seat in the entire Marathwada.
The question being asked now is how Jarange-Patil’s decision to step into active politics will affect the coming election.
Jarange-Patil wields a lot of influence in the economically backward region, which sends 48 seats to the assembly. Out of these 48, the BJP won 16 in the 2019 election, the Shiv Sena (undivided) 12, and the Congress and the NCP (undivided) eight each.
But in the recent Lok Sabha polls, the Maratha vote got consolidated against the Mahayuti; even heavyweight leaders like Pankaja Munde had to concede defeat in places like Beed – traditionally a BJP bastion.
Now Jarange-Patil wants to field Maratha candidates in most of the constituencies in the region. However, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to convert the support he got for his agitation into votes for his candidates. One factor is the timing of the announcement. There are only four weeks remaining for voting in Maharashtra. Can Jarange-Patil find the right candidates, study the constituencies, and complete the Election Commission formalities in just two or three weeks?
Another issue is: Can leaders with a background of agitations convert their mass support into votes and electoral success? In the 1990s Maharashtra saw the rise of farmer leader Sharad Joshi, who floated the Shetkari Sanghatana. He used to gather lakhs of supporters at his rallies.
However, when he decided to enter electoral politics, he could not win even his own seat in Vidarbha. Similar thing was seen with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, or MNS. Thackeray launched an agitation on the issue of Marathi pride in Mumbai and got a lot of public support, but could not convert that into electoral success.
There is no doubt, though, that Jarange-Patil will be able to win a sizeable number of votes and put a dent in the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s base. His voters will give a mandate against the BJP, in the process splitting the anti-BJP votes. This is bound to hurt the MVA.
Jarange-Patil’s sudden decision to enter the polls has surprised many as it was a bit unexpected. There is no doubt that he will upset the current political balance mainly in Marathwada region but to what extent will that happen is an open question.
