Nashik MP Rajabhau Waje of Shiv Sena (UBT) secured victory by a margin of over 1.5 lakh votes in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, with strong support from his home constituency Sinnar. This win was facilitated by Manikrao Kokate, the MLA from the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), who backed Waje for Delhi, clearing the way for the upcoming Assembly elections.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, which includes the Thackeray group, currently holds this seat. As Waje moves to Delhi, a new candidate for this Assembly seat will soon be determined. However, predicting Sinnarkars' choice for the Assembly based on the Lok Sabha votes remains challenging.
Historically, Sinnar Ghat has been a crucial junction for those aspiring to reach Delhi from the Nashik Lok Sabha constituency. This was notably demonstrated by the experiences of Maharashtra Minister Chhagan Bhujbal and his nephew Sameer.
In 2014, Manikrao Kokate openly rebelled against Bhujbal. In 2019, Kokate's strong performance in Sinnar, garnering 90,000 votes, significantly contributed to the defeat of Sameer Bhujbal in the Nashik Lok Sabha elections. Thus, winning the Nashik Lok Sabha constituency often hinges on securing Sinnar.
Thackeray's strategic move to nominate Waje, who achieved a significant lead of 1.5 lakh votes, proved successful, thwarting Godse's attempts at a hat-trick. Currently, the focus shifts to the Assembly elections. The sitting MLA Manikrao Kokate, who provided logistical support to Waje, avoided opposing him and now finds himself without a formidable opponent as Waje heads to Delhi. Although there are still four months until the Assembly elections, significant political developments in Sinnar are anticipated.
It is being speculated that Bharat Kokate, the brother of Manikrao Kokate, who has been allied with the Waje group for the past two years and played a leading role in Waje's Lok Sabha campaign, might contest the Sinnar Assembly seat from the Thackeray group.
