Mumbai: The birth rate in Mumbai dropped by 11.65 per cent in 2022, as compared to that registered in 2018. 1.51 lakh births were recorded in 2018, which dropped to 1.33 lakh last year. On the other hand, the death rate in the city has risen by six per cent.
Health officials claim there are several factors which have resulted in a drop in live births, such as delayed matrimony – conception gets difficult with increasing age. Experts also see the decline in births as an indication that measures taken to control the birth rate have been successful – it was increasing at the rate of two per cent annually but has now dropped to 1.7 per cent.
Details On The Population In The City
Currently, the city has a larger youth population, which is likely to be the prevailing scenario for a while. Given that there has been no census after 2011, no data is available. The UN estimates that on July 1, 2023, India’s population was 1,428,627,663. We are currently the world’s most populous nation. Almost 40 per cent of Mumbai’s population lives in densely populated slums, as per the 2011 census. When the pandemic struck, many slum areas, such as Worli-Koliwada and Dharavi, turned into Covid hotspots.
“Some of these areas are also home to the migrant population. The first national lockdown saw several lakhs of migrants, including pregnant women, leave the city. After the flattening of the pandemic curve, though, many men returned in 2021, leaving their wives back home,” a senior health official informed.
“The findings are not surprising to many demographers, who have noted similar declines all across the world, including in developed countries like the United States. When there is an outbreak of a new disease, people panic and there are emotional and financial repercussions.
So, though they don’t forego childbearing, they delay it until the situation improves,” said another expert. They also pointed out that such a ‘baby bust’ was also witnessed after catastrophic events, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 1918 influenza pandemic.
City Has Witnessed Declining Birth Rate Since Last 10 Years: Civic Officials
Underlining that the decline isn’t surprising, civic officials conceded that fewer births have been recorded in the last 10 years. The BMC’s former executive health officer, Dr Mangla Gomare, said, “The city has witnessed only 4-5 lakh live births in the last 10 years. The current population of Mumbai is not more than 1.39 crore. We have witnessed a drastic drop in deliveries in slums. We believe that many migrant mothers haven’t returned, (since the easing of Covid restrictions) and thus, the live birth rate remained low even in 2021.”
“The decreasing birth rate could also be viewed as societal change. With the increase in the cost of living and education, we notice that people from all strata of society and economic classes are opting to have just one baby, nowadays. This is one of the major reasons for the overall decrease in birth rate,” said a senior gynaecologist.
Sion Hospital's Gynaecologist Sheds Light On Possible Reasons
Another gynaecologist from Sion Hospital – which records the highest number of annual deliveries in the city – said, “Times have changed and with late marriages, many conceive late. All of these contribute to lower birth rates. It will continue to drop for a few more years after the pandemic as well.”
“According to the 2011 census, the fertility rate of the country was two per cent, and now, it is 1.7 percent. It means that the family planning policy formulated in the last few years is succeeding. At a certain stage, the population increases and decreases. At present, we have a large youth class, we need to focus on increasing the infrastructure. The decrease in the number of births in Mumbai is not a matter of concern,” said a gynaecologist from a private hospital.
