For the Maharashtra Assembly elections, it's not just the people of the state but the entire country that is eager to find out which leader will get the top post and officially reside in Varsha Bungalow, located in one of Mumbai's posh areas Malabar Hill post polls.
The defining characteristic of this election is that the political parties in the fray are not only competing for power but also striving for dominance within two major alliances: the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi. The contest this time is as much within these alliances as it is against their main opposition. The Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance includes the Congress Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray). These three parties were once rivals before the NCP and Shiv Sena split after a rebellion by their MLAs.
Similarly, the same can be said about the parties in the Mahayuti alliance: BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena. Even in this election, while staying together, the parties within both alliances are leaving no stone unturned to outpace their allies. In view of the Maharashtra Assembly elections, The Free Press Journal will present a series of articles offering a SWOT analysis of the major political parties contesting the polls.
In this second article of the series, we analyse the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats facing the BJP, which emerged as the largest party in the last election, winning 105 of the 122 seats it contested. This time, the BJP has fielded candidates in 148 seats, while its ally Shiv Sena is contesting 82 seats, and the NCP 55 seats.
Strengths:
- Ruling party at state and Centre
BJP has the biggest advantage in this election over their alliance partners as well as rival parties because it is in power not only in Maharashtra but also at the Centre. Being in power means control over government resources, which can be used by a political party during elections, though this is considered unethical.
The BJP has another advantage as a national party: it can attract more funding in the state and mobilize funds from its party treasury, which is filled with donations not just from Maharashtra but from across the country.
- Dy CM in the State
The BJP is not just part of the government in the state, it also controls key ministries. BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis, currently the Deputy Chief Minister of the state, is also the Home Minister. The state police reports to him. It is said that ruling parties use the police to gather intelligence to gauge public sentiment and leverage this information to their advantage.
- Heavyweight star campaigners
Unlike other parties, the BJP's list of star campaigners features prominent leaders with widespread appeal, including the Prime Minister, multiple Union Ministers, and Chief Ministers from various states.
BJP's Star Campaigners list for Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024 |
- Cash handouts, popular schemes
Months before the Assembly elections, the Mahayuti government introduced cash handouts, including ₹1,500 monthly for women under the Ladki Bahin scheme, with the BJP pledging to increase it to ₹2,100. The BJP also promised ₹10,000 monthly for 10 lakh students, a 30% cut in electricity bills, higher senior citizen pensions, and an increased Kisan Samman Yojana payout, aiming to leverage these schemes to retain power.
- Hardcore 'Hindutva Party' image
Before 2019, the Shiv Sena held the image of a Hindu hardliner party in Maharashtra, with the BJP in its shadow. Currently, the BJP is seen as the only major party in the state actively promoting Hindutva politics. Following the Shiv Sena's split, voter support is believed to have increasingly shifted toward the BJP in the name of Hindutva.
Weaknesses:
- Internal-rift
After the ticket distribution, internal differences within the BJP have become apparent. Many leaders, after being denied tickets, are contesting as independent candidates. While the party managed to stop several candidates from contesting in time, there are places where the party has split. Disgruntled leaders, along with their supporters, are not campaigning for the party, which could lead to losses for the BJP in several constituencies.
- Induction of tainted leaders into party/ alliance with NCP
The leaders against whom the BJP once leveled corruption charges and labeled as the most corrupt, joining the party has confused BJP supporters. They are unsure how to support such leaders or vote in their favor. The term "washing machine" has started being used for the BJP, with the belief that after joining the party, these leaders' taints are washed away, and they are absolved of all allegations. Many BJP members did not like the party allying with Ajit Pawar's NCP.
- Dependency on alliance partners
The BJP is contesting just over half of the total assembly seats in the state. To form the government, it will have to rely on its alliance partners. However, based on past experiences, the loyalty of its allies after the results cannot be guaranteed.
Opportunities:
- Regain lost ground
The BJP has a great opportunity for a strong comeback after its lackluster performance in the Lok Sabha elections. A strong showing in the assembly elections will inject new energy into the party workers. Once again, the BJP has the chance to place one of its own leaders in the Chief Minister's chair in Maharashtra. Devendra Fadnavis is the only BJP leader who has served as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra.
- Emerge as the largest political party in Maharashtra
The BJP, which is contesting on 148 seats, has the opportunity to emerge as the largest party in the state.
- Turnaround Lok Sabha election results
In the Lok Sabha elections this year, the BJP won only 9 out of the 28 seats it contested. However, the BJP can turn around its poor performance by winning the maximum number of seats it is contesting in the upcoming elections.
- Set the tone for upcoming elections in different states
The BJP's performance in the Maharashtra elections will not only impact the upcoming Bihar and Delhi assembly elections but it is also believed to potentially affect the central NDA government. Political experts believe that BJP's victory in Maharashtra will bolster stability at the Centre.
Threats:
Internal tug of war within Mahayuti
The tug-of-war among the allies of the Mahagathbandhan in going on, with leaders from the three parties publicly making statements against each other. For instance, Ajit Pawar rejected the UP CM Yogi Adityanath's "Batenge Yoh Katenge" slogan. He also put BJP leaders in an uncomfortable position by claiming that Gautam Adani was present at a BJP-NCP meeting. Meanwhile, leaders of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena are hoping that the BJP wins fewer seats, which could pave the way for Shinde to reclaim the Chief Minister's position. These developments reflect a lack of unity within the alliance. Such public disagreements among leaders can confuse voters, potentially impacting the outcome of elections.
The negative impact of Maharashtra election nationally
Maharashtra, with Mumbai as its capital and the financial hub of the nation, is one of the wealthiest states in the country. The BJP is keen to maintain its hold on power in Maharashtra, as an opposition win here would provide ample funding opportunities for other state elections. With increased funding, the Congress party could pose a greater threat to the BJP in other states. From a financial perspective, it is crucial for the BJP to win Maharashtra and form the government here. Losing this state, with Mumbai as its capital, would be a significant setback for the party.
A poor performance in Maharashtra could pose a serious threat to Narendra Modi's continued tenure as Prime Minister, as the BJP relies on the support of JDU and TDP at the Centre to stay in power. Following the Maharashtra elections, Bihar will hold its polls next year, where BJP is in alliance with JDU. A weak performance in Maharashtra could create a dilemma for Bihar’s Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, who is known for switching sides to safeguard his position. If Nitish Kumar severs ties with the BJP, it could jeopardise Modi's hold on the Prime Minister’s chair.
BJP, which is also called the "election willing machine" by some political commentators, is very much capable of proving negative predictions or analysis wrong by its performance. The fresh example of this was seen in Haryana Assembly elections, where majority of pollsters had predicted Congress's victory. But BJP surprised everyone by winning the state for a third consecutive time. Will BJP form government in Maharashtra or its MLAs will sit on opposition benches in the house, it will be clear on November 23.
