The landslide victory of MahaYuti in Maharashtra state elections have triggered a massive upheaval in the betting market, resulting in an estimated loss of over Rs 11,000 crore. Bookmakers sitting in the country and abroad, who had heavily invested in illegal betting apps over the last ten days, were left stunned as the actual results took a dramatic turn, completely beyond their imagination defying their meticulously calculated predictions. Confidence in their predictions was based on a range of factors: controversial statements like “ बटेंगे तो कटेंगे ” (you wd be wiped out, if stand divided ), debates over funding the 'Ladki Bahna Yojana' amid reports of an empty state treasury, unexpectedly high voter turnout suggesting a shift in power, the OBC and Maratha agitations, anti-incumbency murmurs, and internal conflicts within the BJP.
Despite relying on religious symbolism, statistical models, and exit poll data, all forecasts crumbled when the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance created a Tsunami surging past the 230-seat mark.The stunning surge has sent shockwaves through the betting world, where high-stakes wagers based on ‘foolproof’ forecasts have crumbled into dust. Millions of rupees have been wiped out in an instant as gamblers, confident in their predictions, are left reeling from the disastrous blow. The unthinkable victory has not only shattered the integrity of once-trusted data but has also sparked a massive crisis, leaving the world of political betting in utter chaos.
A seasoned bookmaker described the betting scene in the days before the election: “Around ten days before voting, bets on the BJP hovered around 70 to 80 seats. This was particularly after Home Minister Amit Shah's assurance that the next Chief Minister would be from the BJP, along with statements by JP Nadda indicating the party’s independence from the RSS and then controversial remarks of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, like ‘बटेंगे तो कटेंगे,’ only added to the speculation.”
On the eve of the vote, predictions had stabilized, with bookies banking on the BJP winning around 80 seats. By the time voting concluded, they had exempted their estimates to 85-90 seats maximum. However, the shock came on November 23, when the results revealed the BJP alone crossing the 100-seat mark, leading to immediate losses of over Rs 3,000 crore for bookies who had placed their safe reserve bets on BJP cautiously on the party.
In addition to the BJP’s unexpected performance, the betting market had also heavily invested in the overall election outcome, with more than Rs 7,000 crore bet on the expected neck-to-neck contest between the BJP-led Mahayuti and the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The market had projected a range of 133 to 154 seats for the Mahayuti alliance, while the MVA was expected to secure between 110 to 127 seats. Predictions for independent candidates ranged from 4 to 8 seats.
However, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance secured 49 seats, defying bookmakers' expectations. They had anticipated that, due to anti-incumbency, either the BJP or the Shinde-led Shiv Sena would clinch victory and save face. However, the MVA's performance in this election has not only kept them out of power for the next five years but also dealt a significant blow to the betting community, resulting in losses amounting to thousands of crores. The once-reliable betting trends crumbled under the weight of the surprising election results, leading to a massive financial fallout that has shaken the foundations of political betting in India.
A well-known bookie, speaking on the condition of anonymity, expressed disbelief, echoing the opposition's rhetoric, claimed that the election results were manipulated and that the voting machines were tampered with and hacked. He questioned the authenticity of the BJP's victory, saying, “If this is truly such a huge win, why isn’t the public celebrating? It seems only the party’s supporters are acknowledging the victory. Only the party supporters seem to be rejoicing, not the general populace.”
The unexpected victory has not only led to significant financial losses but also sparked a broader crisis in the political betting world. What was seen as a ‘safe bet’ has left bookmakers questioning the reliability of their predictive models and data sources.
He highlighted several unexpected factors that made predictions challenging. Among these, Muslim voters were considered potential game-changers, with many expecting them to back the Congress-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). However, their impact did not meet expectations, raising doubts about the accuracy of polling data. They were taken to be granted and not much was heeded towards pulling them out, as was done in PE 2024."How can anyone say that all Hindus united to support the BJP-led Mahayuti despite the pressing issues of inflation, unemployment, and corruption?" he questioned.
Furthermore, the Maratha and OBC communities were expected to significantly influence the election due to their ongoing agitation for reservations and other demands. Many believed their discontent would lead to a shift in the political landscape. Despite this unrest, the BJP-led alliance secured a sweeping victory, intensifying speculation over the fairness of the electoral process.
The Maratha and OBC agitations were supposed to shift the balance of power,” the bookie remarked, “but instead, they seemed to have had minimal effect. The entire political landscape was poised for change, yet the results defied all logical expectations.”
The controversies surrounding the election, along with doubts over the role of these key voter segments, have plunged the political betting world into uncertainty. Many are left questioning how predictions went so wrong and what these unexpected results mean for future elections.
