Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently discussed the Wayanad landslide in Parliament and made several claims about early warning systems. He stated that on July 18, an early warning was issued predicting above-normal rainfall in Kerala's western coastal areas. By July 23, this warning was updated to "very heavy rainfall," and on July 25, it was further specified as "heavy to very heavy" rainfall.
IMD’s Warnings and Forecasts
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a press release on July 18 mentioning a flash flood risk in northern Kerala until July 19. However, this release did not cover Kerala specifically for the period of July 18-31.
The IMD’s press release on July 23 included warnings for "very heavy rainfall at isolated places" on July 25 and heavy rainfall from July 23-27. The visual weather warnings included an orange alert for July 25 and yellow "watch" alerts for July 23, 24, 26, and 27.
Forecast Details Before Landslides
On July 25, IMD’s forecast predicted "scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall" over Kerala, with heavy rainfall likely at isolated places from July 25–29. This forecast featured a yellow alert, which does not call for action. The extended forecast from July 25 to August 7 anticipated "scattered to fairly widespread light to moderate rainfall" and heavy rainfall at isolated places. On July 29, IMD issued an orange alert for very heavy rainfall, but the landslides occurred on July 30.
Discrepancies in Forecasts
An Agromet forecast from July 23 predicted only 15 mm of rainfall for Wayanad on July 30. This amount is generally not considered alarming according to IMD's categorization.
The extended range forecast issued on July 25 predicted "cumulative above normal rainfall" for Kerala, but did not issue any warnings. The district rainfall forecast on July 26 predicted "light to moderate" rainfall for Wayanad on July 30.
Red Alert Claims and Official Statements
Shah claimed that a red alert for heavy rainfall and potential landslides was issued to Kerala on July 26. However, the IMD press release from that day did not include such warnings, only a yellow watch alert. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contested Shah’s claims, stating that none of the relevant agencies had issued a red alert for Wayanad prior to the landslides.
Contentious Early Warning System Claims
Shah also stated that India established the world's most modern early warning system after 2014 and could forecast calamities seven days in advance. This claim is disputed, as the UNDRR’s 2023 report indicates that state-of-the-art forecasts for tropical cyclones can only be updated 3-5 days before landfall.
For rainfall, IMD’s standard procedures indicate that red alerts for extremely heavy rainfall cannot be issued more than 48 hours in advance, contradicting Shah’s seven-day claim.
Disaster Relief Claims
Shah’s assertion that disaster response before 2014 was limited to relief and rehabilitation is incorrect. India established the National Monsoon Mission in 2012 to enhance monsoon prediction capabilities. The first phase of the mission, MM-I, was completed in 2017, and MM-II began focusing on predicting weather extremes and developing climatic applications. However, funding for ACROSS, which includes MM-II, was reduced significantly in 2024.
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