Beginning from the Jatland, moving through the Yadav belt, UP poll has finally meandered its way to the heart of the state. People from 59 assembly segments in 9 districts namely -- Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Sitapur, Hardoi, Unnao, Lucknow, Rae Bareilly, Banda and Fatehpur -- will exercise their right to choose their legislator on February 23.
The fate of 624 candidates will be locked in the EVMs, to be opened only on March 10th. Of the 59 seats,the BJP had won 51 in 2017 elections, four had gone to the Samajwadi Party, and three to the Bahujan Samaj Party. The BJP’s ally Apna Dal(Sonelal) had bagged one seat. A look at the results of the last two assembly elections in the Awadh region shows that the party managing to win this area forms the government.
The absence of an alliance among major parties in the 2022 assembly election has made it difficult to read public mood and detect a discerning voting pattern or undercurrent, which seems to vary from phase to phase in the seven-round election. All parties seem geared up for the fourth phase and experts believe that it is this phase where things would start getting clearer.
Though, most people believe that the fourth phase will be completely bipolar except for a handful of seats in Rae Bareilly. Congress and BSP are trying all tricks up their sleeve to extract something in this sharply polarised phase. Interestingly, the only Lok Sabha seat that Congress managed to win in 2019 -- Rae Bareilly -- will also be in the poll fray in this phase.
Two of its rebel MLAs -- Aditi Singh and Rakesh Singh -- will contest on BJP ticket this time. BSP is also keeping a close eye on seats like Mohanlalganj, Unchahar, Hargaon, Sidhauli, Misrikh, etc. BSPknows it well that the entire template of the election has changed.
Earlier, a candidate polling anywhere between 22%-28% managed to win the seat easily, now even 40% votes doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a victory.
For instance, in the 2017 assembly polls in UP, Rajesh Mishra (of the Congress who will contest from Varanasi Cantt this time) polled over 42% votes from Varanasi South seat but lost to BJP’s Neelkanth Tiwari by a margin of over 17,000 votes.
BSP, just with its Jatav voters can’t do much. It would need to recreate its traditional formula of Meem plus Bheem (Muslim plus Dalit) along with a good share of Brahmin votes.
Though, it’s too late for that now. Senior journalist Syed Danish Mehdi from Ambedkar Nagar (often known as BSP bastion) commenting on BSP’s attempt to regain its voters said, “Sab Kuch luta kar hosh me aaye to kya kiya”. Moreover, the BJP would be hoping for a division of Muslim votes which would directly help it.
In an interview to a news channel, Amit Shah, in an attempt to divide Muslim votes and to create a perception that Muslims are indeed voting for BSP, said, “BSP has maintained its relevance. Muslims will also support them in a lot of seats”. Commenting on this, Congress candidate from Zaidpur (Barabanki) Tanuj Punia said, “The real face of BSP is already known to the voters.
People understand that voting for BSP is like voting for the BJP”. The Samajwadi Party is in the poll fray on 58 seats, while its ally Om Prakash Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) has fielded candidates on the remaining two seats. The BSP and the Congress are fighting on all 59 seats while the BJP will contest 57 seats, leaving its ally Apna Dal (S) 3.
The big names in the poll fray for the fourth phase include the likes of Brajesh Pathak, Ashutosh Tandon, Rajeshwar Singh, Abhishek Mishra, Ravidas Mehrotra, Aditi Singh, Nitin Agarwal, etc.
