Jaipur: Barely halfway through the monsoon season, Rajasthan is staring at a drought-like situation, with rainfall remaining well below normal across nearly half the state and water levels in key reservoirs continuing to decline instead of replenishing.
According to rainfall data available until August 1, Rajasthan has received 194 mm of rainfall against the normal 217 mm, leaving the state with an 11 percent deficit. Of the state's 41 districts, 18 have recorded below-normal rainfall, another 18 have received normal rainfall, while only five districts—Barmer, Beawar, Bikaner, Phalodi, and Salumber—have received above-normal rainfall.
The deficit has raised concerns over drinking water availability and irrigation in a state that possesses just 1.16 percent of India's surface water resources. Water managers fear that unless rainfall improves significantly during August and September, several regions could face severe water stress.
The current season marks a dramatic reversal from last year when Rajasthan witnessed an exceptionally wet monsoon. In 2025, 29 districts recorded excess rainfall, 10 received above-normal rainfall, and none fell into the below-normal category.
Although the southwest monsoon officially reached Rajasthan on July 2, pre-monsoon showers beginning June 1 ensured a normal start to the rainy season. June rainfall remained almost exactly on target, with the state receiving 55.6 mm against the normal 55 mm. However, the monsoon weakened sharply in July, when Rajasthan recorded only 137.3 mm of rainfall against the monthly average of 161.4 mm.
The rainfall deficit has begun to reflect in the state's reservoirs. Of Rajasthan's 693 dams, 251 are currently empty, while the overall storage across reservoirs stands at only 48.15 percent of capacity, compared to nearly 75 percent during the same period last year.
Particularly worrying is the decline in water levels at major reservoirs despite the ongoing monsoon.
The Jawai Dam in Pali district has fallen from 10.12 RL meters on July 1 to 9.27 RL meters by July 31. At the Bisalpur Dam, the principal source of drinking water for Jaipur, Ajmer, and Tonk, the water level has marginally declined from 313.64 RL meters to 313.58 RL meters, despite a brief inflow following rainfall in its catchment.
Similarly, Meja Dam in Bhilwara has dropped from 6.16 RL meters to 6.01 RL meters, while Somkamla Amba Dam in Dungarpur has declined from 10.55 RL meters to 10.45 RL meters.Officials warn that if substantial rainfall does not occur over the next two months and reservoirs such as Bisalpur and Jawai fail to receive adequate inflows, districts including Jaipur, Ajmer, and Pali could face shortages of drinking water and irrigation supplies.
Meteorologists attribute the weak monsoon primarily to El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, coupled with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The El Niño has reduced both the frequency and intensity of low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal, which normally drive monsoon rainfall across northwestern India. Stronger-than-usual westerly winds have further disrupted the easterly moisture flow, weakening the southwest monsoon over much of the country.
Adding to the concern, the India Meteorological Department's outlook for August and September predicts below-normal rainfall across Rajasthan, indicating that the state may receive little relief during the remainder of the monsoon season. If the forecast holds, Rajasthan could face one of its most challenging water years in recent times, with implications for agriculture, drinking water supply, and rural livelihoods.
