Uttar Pradesh, the state where Narendra Modi chose to get elected to the Lower House of Parliament three times, has caused a major upset for the BJP by reducing the saffron party's seats by half from the 2019 elections.
In UP, the BJP managed to secure 33 seats, compared to 71 in the 2019 elections. The Samajwadi Party and Congress Party's exceptional performance in the state has put the INDIA Bloc's seat numbers ahead of the NDA's.
The people of Uttar Pradesh, along with those of West Bengal and Maharashtra, have not placed their trust in Modi as they did in previous elections.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi with BJP president JP Nadda | Facebook
The outcome of the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections is even more surprising, considering that all major exit polls predicted the BJP's victory in 62-74 constituencies.
After survey agencies and political observers failed to gauge the mood of voters after polling, seven major reasons are now being attributed to the BJP's downfall in Uttar Pradesh.
1. Absence of RSS on ground during elections:
In previous elections, there was a noticeable absence of RSS volunteers at the grassroots level. The RSS has historically been instrumental in mobilising voters, without openly endorsing any political party. However, recent observations indicate a shift from this usual approach, suggesting a departure from this norm.
Lack of support from RSS cadre during the election is seen as one of the major reasons for BJP's victory on fewer seats than in 2019.
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath | Facebook
2. Candidate selection
Political observers believe that in many constituencies, BJP workers felt that candidates were imposed on them, even though they opposed the candidature of the person. Local leaders were found complaining about the fact that their objections were brushed aside while deciding the candidate list..
3. High command ignored Yogi in seat distribution
There is buzz on social media that in Uttar Pradesh, tickets were given to 35 such candidates, whom CM Yogi Adityanath had described as weak. The central leadership dropped 35 names from the list suggested by Yogi.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and SP leader Akhilesh Yadav | ANI
4. Change in constitution/ reservation
INDIA Bloc, the opposition alliance, successfully spun the narrative that PM Modi's slogan of 'abki baar 400' implies amending the constitution to end reservations. Some BJP MPs' statements claiming that winning 400+ seats would allow the BJP to change the constitution has raised concerns among Dalit and backward voters. Traditionally, Dalit voters in the state voted for the BSP, but this time they opted for INDIA Bloc candidates.
5. Pasmanda women voters voted against PM Modi's Mangalsutra remarks
According to surveys, in previous elections, the BJP received approximately 7-10% of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh. This time, the number decreased due to PM Modi's remarks during the election campaign. Notably, during a public address in Rajasthan, PM Modi said that the Congress would snatch the mangalsutra and gold from women and divide them among infiltrators (Muslims).
6. Lower voter turnout
In the 2019 elections, the voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh was 59.21 percent, while this year it decreased to 56.92 percent. Political analysts believe that the voters who were expected to support the BJP did not turn up at the polling booths on election day. They assumed that, despite not casting their votes, the BJP would still win due to PM Modi's popularity. On the other hand, anti-BJP voters came out to vote against BJP candidates in their constituencies.
7. Misuse of central agencies
It is said that arrest of two chief minister of opposition-ruled states didn't go down well with UP voters. The arrests of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and former Jharkhand chief minister Hemant Soren resulted in the perception of Modi as a dictator in the minds of the voters.
The assembly elections in the state are due in 2027 and it would be interesting to see if Opposition parties build on their Lok Sabha election success. Even more interesting would be how BJP recovers from this setback.
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