The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted on Wednesday that all circumstances are conducive for the onset of monsoon in Kerala by Friday (June 9) as Cyclone "Biparjoy" swiftly evolves into a severe cyclonic storm. According to a senior IMD scientist, rain would fall on the southern peninsula as a result of the cyclone and a low-pressure system that is forming in the Bay of Bengal. However, as the cyclone degenerates, the monsoon will continue its advance beyond the southern peninsula.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Skymet Weather, said, "The cloud mass is concentrated around this system and enough moisture is not reaching the Kerala coast. Though the criteria for monsoon onset can be met in the next two days, it will not be a thumping start."
Monsoon to be delayed further
The monsoon will stay "weak" when it begins over Kerala until the storm degenerates around June 12, according to him. According to the IMD forecast, the most recent meteorological features that have been linked to the arrival of the monsoon over Kerala include the persistence of westerly winds over the southern Arabian Sea, an increase in the depth of these winds to middle tropospheric levels, and an increase in cloud cover over regions that include the southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, and Kerala coasts. "Under such a scenario, the conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next 48 hours," the IMD reported in its bulletin on Wednesday.
Lakshadweep, Bay of Bengal to see beginning of monsoon
The entire Lakshadweep region, the Maldives, Comorin, additional portions of the southwest, central & northeast Bay of Bengal, and certain Northeastern states all have good conditions for the start of the southwest monsoon.
"The powerful weather system in the Arabian Sea may spoil the advancement of the monsoon deep inland. Under their influence, the monsoon stream may reach coastal parts but will struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats", according to Tuesday's Skymet Weather report.
Kerala typically experiences the onset of the southwest monsoon on June 1 with a standard variance of roughly seven days. The IMD predicted that the monsoon might hit Kerala by June 4 in mid-May. On June 7, Skymet had projected the beginning of the monsoon over Kerala with a three-day margin of error.
Thunderstorms in Andhra
Hyderabad registered 40 degrees Celsius, and the Met department has predicted that Andhra Pradesh would likely see heat waves for the following two days. The coastal Andhra districts and the Rayalaseema area of Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience thunderstorms and lightning. The emergence of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea and its deepening, according to the weather service, are anticipated to have a significant impact on the monsoon's progress towards Kerala.
"Westerly winds over the south Arabian Sea continue to prevail up to 2.1 km above mean sea level. However, because of a cyclonic circulation over the southeast Arabian Sea, the cloud mass is more organised and concentrated over the same area and there has been some reduction of clouds off the Kerala coast in the last 24 hours," the IMD said.
