The Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance appears to be heading towards a decisive victory in Jammu and Kashmir, according to the latest electoral trends on the Election Commission of India website.
With the alliance currently leading in 47 seats, the BJP is trailing far behind, seemingly securing just 29 seats.
Early predictions had suggested that Mehbooba Mufti’s People's Democratic Party (PDP) and independent candidates might play pivotal roles, but the emerging numbers indicate that they are unlikely to influence the outcome.
This election marks a critical moment for the BJP, being the first major electoral challenge since Jammu and Kashmir's reorganisation following the abrogation of Article 370 and the separation of Ladakh as a Union Territory. Despite the BJP's promise of creating a “Naya Kashmir,” the party seems to have struggled to gain the trust of the region’s voters.
Here are five key factors contributing to the BJP's setback in ‘Naya Jammu and Kashmir’
Article 370 and public distrust
The removal of Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and the region’s subsequent bifurcation into Union Territories, were landmark decisions by the BJP. However, the party failed to convince a significant portion of the population that these changes were beneficial to them and how.
Meanwhile, opposition parties capitalised on this, especially the NC, creating a narrative that the rights of the region's people were being diminished.
No CM face
Another factor that might have proven detrimental for the BJP was that it did not announce a face for the top position but rather relied on the central leadership projecting PM Modi and Amit Shah as the party's face. Although BJP state president, Ravindra Raina, was one of the most viable faces for the CM post, his Hindutva politics made it difficult for him to make himself heard in predominantly Muslim pockets. The absence of a clear leadership choice may have contributed to voter uncertainty about the BJP’s plans for efficient governance.
Lack of presence in the Kashmir valley
BJP’s inability to build a strong foothold in the Kashmir Valley has been another critical factor. And this has been the case for many years now. In the Lok Sabha elections, the party did not field a single candidate from the valley, and in the current assembly elections, it contested only 19 out of 47 seats there. Relying on allies and independent candidates to make inroads into the valley proved to be an unsuccessful strategy, leaving the contest largely between the Congress-NC alliance and PDP.
Unemployment and unfulfilled developmental promises
When Jammu and Kashmir became a Union Territory, the BJP promised significant investments and development projects aimed at reducing unemployment. However, progress on these promises has been slow, leading to growing frustration, particularly among the region's young generation. The failure to address unemployment effectively has further eroded support for the BJP, as many voters felt disillusioned by the unfulfilled promises of jobs, economic revival, and a better life altogether.
Actions against separatists
Ground reports suggest that the BJP’s hardline stance against separatist movements and insurgency in the region was met with mixed reactions from the voters. While many were content that episodes like stone-pelting and killings in the region diminished, others felt that their rights were suppressed in the process. It seems that this perception may have moved voters away from the saffron party.
As the results continue to unfold throughout the day, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Congress-NC alliance is poised to form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir, delivering a significant blow to the BJP's political ambitions in the region.
Meanwhile, a jubilant NC chief and former Jammu and Kashmir CM Farooq Abdullah in a statement to the media said that his son, Omar Abdullah, will become the next chief minister of the Union Territory.
