What seemed like an invincible Opposition alliance in the state of Maharashtra just about eight weeks ago, now seems scattered and shattered. Maha Vikas Aghadi or MVA, the alliance initiated by Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar in 2019, today seems very vulnerable after Ajit Pawar and some others decided to walk away. This brings up some questions. Is UddhavThackeray, the man who led the MVA government, now a lonely man? Will Uddhav Thackeray be able to revive his party's fortunes? Will the NCP, Congress and Uddhav's alliance be able to pose a formidable challenge to the BJP-led NDA in Maharashtra?
Maharashtra politics has been at centre stage nationally and has become the centre of attention for politicians in New Delhi because there has been a lot of drama in the last two years, and this state sends 48 members to the Lok Sabha which is the second largest number after Uttar Pradesh. The drama originally began in 2019 with Uddhav Thackeray deciding to walk out of the NDA alliance, accepting NCP chief Sharad Pawar's offer to become the chief minister and form the government in the state. Three and a half years down the line after many twists and turns the tables have totally turned, putting Uddhav in a very vulnerable position, almost finding his back against the wall!
Peak election season is about to start in Maharashtra after the monsoon, and what is at stake is over a dozen municipal corporations including the 50,000-crore Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation which has been Uddhav's bastion and home turf. An aggressive BJP, accompanied by politically very rooted Eknath Shinde and now NCP's dynamic leader Ajit Pawar, will pose a massive challenge to Uddhav. The past few months have seen a string of leaders deserting Uddhav and his son Aditya Thackeray. Shinde's Shiv Sena has been working overtime to ensure that the flow of leaders leaving Uddhav and joining their group remains steady.
Uddhav now does seem a lonely man. It would perhaps be interesting to analyse his personality and background at this stage. A graduate from JJ School of Art, Uddhav was an avid photographer and inclined towards a career in advertising or photography. Reluctant to enter the world of politics, Uddhav practically got pushed into it because of family pressure. He is more at ease in the world of art than among political persons. Always known to be very inaccessible and most comfortable at his home, Uddhavis of late seen to be making special efforts to reach out and meet party activists, leaders and grassroots workers. But the big question remains, is it too late?
At stake is Uddhav's domination of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation or BMC. This has always remained Shiv Sena's main and biggest source of political and financial power. In the 2017 elections the BJP made it clear that they were not comfortable remaining Shiv Sena's junior partner in the BMC, but wanted to control it. They did not have the numbers and so decided to sit in Opposition and be what they called the “watchdog”. This was the point from where the rift between Uddhav and BJP started. Six years down the line we can see the BJP being sure that Uddhav is now their adversary number one in Maharashtra politics. The BJP has been working to make inroads into Uddhav's BMC territory and now they seem firmly ready to dislodge Uddhav's Sena from their bastion.
Uddhav's weakness is not just limited to his being initially reluctant to get into active politics or reluctance to be on the field, it is also related to his over-dependence on a certain coterie; people who surround him, advise him and control his party. Eknath Shinde was definitely not the first leader to quit the Shiv Sena. Since 1991 (when Sena heavyweight Chhagan Bhujbal left the party to join the Congress) the process of leaders leaving the Sena to join other parties with a group of elected representatives has been on for a long time. Narayan Rane left and joined the Congress. Raj Thackeray left to form his own political outfit. But this time there were three factors that made the difference. Firstly the number of MLAs leaving with the rebel leader was high, secondly the rebel leader claimed the name and election symbol of the original party, and thirdly the rebel leader got the full backing of a party that is ruling at the centre and is very powerful in Maharashtra with 106 MLAs in the Assembly.
What makes matters worse for Uddhav are the recent developments in the Nationalist Congress Party. Ajit Pawar's rebellion and his alignment with the BJP will damage Uddhav in certain pockets of Thane, Navi Mumbai and the Marathwada region of Maharashtra. In the 30 months that Ajit Pawar spent sharing power with Uddhav, he has learnt the ropes of how the Sena high command operates and he will perhaps use this to attract some of Uddhav's activists towards him in Marathwada or other parts of the state. It is very relevant to note that before taking over as chief minister in 2019, Uddhav had absolutely no experience in holding any office, of being an MLA or MLC or in administration. While he was chief minister he largely depended on his cabinet colleagues such as Ajit Pawar, Eknath Shinde and many others, most of whom are now his adversaries!
Uddhav's inaccessibility to almost everybody except his family, his reluctance to step out and be on the field most of the day, and his over-dependence on just a few people surrounding him has now put him in a highly vulnerable situation. A steady stream of leaders leaving him and joining the Shinde group is evident; however, nobody is seen leaving any other party to come and join Uddhav. Now the biggest bet for Uddhav is to depend on public sympathy and claiming his father's legacy. Will this suffice to win enough seats in the upcoming municipal polls and other contests poised to happen in Maharashtra? Uddhav surely has the steepest climb ahead of him, perhaps the hardest challenge he has ever faced in his political life.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune
