There are 68 days left for the US presidential elections. More Indians seem to be invested this time in who is going to reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for the next four years than in most American elections in memory — the prime reason being that one of the candidates is of Indian heritage. The discussion then veers onto another old trope: who is better for India? Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
This is simultaneously a good and meaningless question. It is a good question because, for any American election, given the people-to-people relations the two countries share, the President’s views on India and the neighbourhood are important. It is also a meaningless question in the current context because Kamala Harris, just because her mother is Indian, will not be granting undue favours to New Delhi.
Yet, we must attempt to answer this because India’s policymakers will have to be ready for both eventualities.
To understand both scenarios, we need to keep in mind that India’s relationship with the United States is that of a strategic partner, something that was reiterated and strengthened during the June 2023 state visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington DC and other American cities. India is not an ally of the US; it is a partner. It a subtle but important distinction. An ally implies hierarchy; a partner means that we sit at the negotiation table as equals.
We will also need to be ready for both presidencies dispassionately. In foreign policy, ideologies do not matter, interests do. Therefore, India’s approach to either a Trump or a Harris presidency will be to maximise our interests.
There are five major pillars on which the strategic partnership will stand for the next two decades at the very least: Immigration and people-to-people contact, high-tech investments especially semiconductors, defence cooperation, the Indo-Pacific, and trade.
Where does each of the candidates stand on these issues? Trump has been outspoken on immigration, to the extent that he has asked the visa ecosystem to be overhauled. This will impact Indians the most, not just those who are likely to be transferred under the H1-B visa regime, but also those who are waiting for the elusive green card, the pathway to permanent citizenship. Hundreds and thousands of Indian families have been traumatised on account of the 100-plus years waiting list. Harris on the other hand has not issued a comprehensive policy statement on immigration.
To be sure, the political discourse in America over immigration tends to focus on border crossings from the south as well as undocumented immigrants. Indians, on the other hand, are in the country as skilled labour, and therefore are not political hot buttons. Trump has successfully diverted the immigration discussion to his favourite tropes: Mexican illegal immigrants who he claims are murderers and rapists. In fact, a fortnight ago, he said poor countries send their prisoners to the US. His base laps up these fake assertions as gospel.
On high-tech investments and trade, there has been significant progress in the last two years. India and the US announced what could be one of the most important pieces of policy in the last two decades — the Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET). It was announced in May 2022, and formally launched in January 2023. It is being directly supervised by the national security councils of both countries. Under iCET, India and the US have agreed to collaborate on AI, quantum computing, semiconductors, and wireless telecommunication. This includes developing and producing semiconductors and other high-tech components together. The iCET will likely be expanded to the Quad countries later.
When Modi visited the US in June 2023, India signed the Artemis Accords, a landmark agreement that will see both countries cooperate on developing a strategic framework for human spaceflight cooperation. In a joint statement then, the US and India said: “The leaders welcomed 35 innovative joint research collaborations in emerging technologies funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Indian Department of Science and Technology (DST). Under a new implementation arrangement between NSF and DST, both sides will fund joint research projects in computer and information science and engineering, cyber physical systems, and secure and trustworthy cyberspace.”
It is evident that ever since the US-India civil nuclear agreement in 2006, no state visit by an Indian head of government has been as significant as Modi’s last year. Admittedly, the progress that US and India have made under Biden and Modi is, to a large extent, unprecedented.
Harris coming to power after November will most likely see continuity in this policy. Trump, on the other hand, has not made any policy statement that can be studied by wonks on either side to understand the direction his administration will take in case he wins.
On defence cooperation, too, Washington and New Delhi have made great strides. The same joint statement said: “The U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership has emerged as a pillar of global peace and security. Through joint exercises, strengthening of defense industrial cooperation, the annual ‘2+2’ Ministerial Dialogue, and other consultative mechanisms, we have made substantial progress in building an advanced and comprehensive defense partnership in which our militaries coordinate closely across all domains… They also reiterated their resolve to strengthen maritime security cooperation, including through enhanced underwater domain awareness.”
Harris, who was part of the negotiations between the two countries, will, in all likelihood be on board with these collaborations. During his presidency and later, Trump repeatedly made statements that have either angered India or at least made New Delhi sit up and take notice. In 2020, he said India’s air is filthy during a presidential debate with eventual winner Joe Biden. In August 2023, he threatened to impose a reciprocal tax on Indian goods in retaliation for India imposing some restrictions on Harley Davidson bikes.
While both Trump and the Modi’s BJP are conservative right-wing entities, a second term may not turn out to be the way New Delhi believes it will. This is mainly because Trump’s priorities have changed. As he showed during his first term, Trump believes that foreign policy should be a matter of give-and-take rather than any long-term relationship building. India needs to be wary of this approach.
Sachin Kalbag, Senior Fellow at The Takshashila Institution, is a former Washington Correspondent and editor of Indian newspapers. Email: sachin@takshashila.org.in. Twitter: @SachinKalbag
