The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has crossed the halfway mark and is eligible to form a government at the Centre. However, the national sentiment is that the Modi government has suffered a setback in the elections to the 18th Lok Sabha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his second-in-command, Home Minister Amit Shah, are primarily responsible for this outcome, as they had set overly ambitious targets. They claimed that the NDA would secure more than 400 seats, and some party leaders even spoke about amending the Constitution. An impression had gained ground that under the one-nation-one-election programme, which was set to be implemented if the necessary mandate was received, democracy as it is understood today would become a thing of the past. Additionally, voters did not appreciate the projection of Modi above even the party.
If Modi continues as Prime Minister, he will have to take all the NDA partners into confidence, give them respectable positions, and uphold what Atal Bihari Vajpayee once called the “coalition dharma”. This itself constitutes a major setback when the NDA includes leaders like Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, who know how to extract their pound of flesh. The results clearly demonstrate that voters did not approve of Modi’s rhetoric and divisive politics, which led him to make disparaging remarks about Muslims and compare the Congress manifesto to the pre-partition Muslim League manifesto, while calling the BJP’s manifesto “Modi’s Guarantees”. Nothing underscores the BJP’s setback better than the fact that Modi himself trailed behind his rival in Varanasi during the initial counting of votes.
The construction of the Ram temple did not benefit the party, as the BJP suffered the worst setback in Uttar Pradesh, where Faizabad, including Ayodhya, was wrested by the Samajwadi Party, which fielded a Dalit in a general seat. The BJP, which aimed to eliminate the Congress from the electoral field, ended up seeing the INDIAlliance almost equalling the BJP’s tally, with the Congress more than doubling its previous tally. The SP-Congress alliance proved devastating for both Modi and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who was projected as Modi’s successor. The state that solidly stood with the BJP is Madhya Pradesh, where its candidate in Vidisha won by a record margin of over eight lakh votes. If there is a single winner in these elections, it is Rahul Gandhi, who won from both Wayanad and Raebareli with large majorities, more than double that of Modi’s. The Congress secured more seats than the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and performed reasonably well in the Northeast too.
All those behind the post-poll surveys, including one that predicted the BJP’s victory between 361 and 401 seats, seem to have been influenced by Amit Shah’s claims. This is particularly evident in West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress performed overwhelmingly well. The Aam Aadmi Party, with Kejriwal facing imprisonment, turned out to be a liability for the INDIAlliance rather than an asset, as evidenced by its rout in Delhi and below-par performance in Punjab. On the other hand, the DMK maintained its ground in Tamil Nadu, while the Biju Janata Dal lost its steam in Odisha, and the Bharat Rashtra Samiti came up short in Telangana. The BJP can claim credit for its first-ever victory in Kerala, though actor Suresh Gopi’s charismatic appeal played a significant role. In Haryana, where the BJP government is in a minority, there is the prospect of a state election. The results from Bihar suggest that the victor is the chief minister, who can easily change sides and yet retain his base. The Congress has reason to investigate why the BJP performed better in Karnataka.
The Left, particularly the CPM, has been reduced to a four-member party when the Communists were once the largest group in Parliament. Once again, single-party rule is over. Whether this is good or bad should be assessed in light of the strong performance Indira Gandhi showed when the Congress did not have a majority for some time. Both Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh were able to perform better when they headed coalition governments. The results clearly demonstrate the victory of democracy and the people’s faith in the Constitution.
AJ Philip is a senior journalist and columnist, and writes regularly for major national and international publications
