Two-thirds of Europe is under some sort of drought warning, said to be the worst such event in 500 years. With no significant rainfall recorded for almost two months across western, central and southern Europe and none forecast in the near future, the drought has reduced Europe’s once-mighty rivers — Loire, Rhine, Po and Danube — to tricklets, with potentially dramatic consequences for industry, freight, energy and food production. Driven by climate breakdown, an unusually dry winter and spring followed by record-breaking summer temperatures and repeated heat waves have left Europe’s essential waterways under-replenished and overheated.
According to the BBC, the latest report from the Global Drought Observatory says 47 per cent of the European continent is in “warning” condition, which means soil has dried up. Another 17 percent is on “alert”, meaning vegetation shows “signs of stress”. The drought observatory is part of the European Commission’s research wing. The report warns that the dry spell will hit crop yields, spark wildfires, and may last several months more in some of Europe’s southern regions. Compared with the average of the previous five years, the European Union (EU) forecasts for harvests are down between 12 and 16 per cent for maize, soyabeans and sunflowers. If the heat waves and water shortages have created an unprecedented stress on water levels in the entire EU, all of Europe’s lakes have dried up to some extent.
Over the last month, European media has been full of dramatic pictures of drying and exposed riverbeds. In places, France’s longest river, the Loire, can now be crossed on foot. The Rhine, Germany’s longest and biggest river, is becoming impassable for barge traffic. In Italy, the Po is two metres lower than normal and Serbia is dredging the Danube. According to media reports, the European summer has never been so dry since 1540. The dry spell this year has seen a record-breaking heat wave with temperatures in many EU countries rising to historic highs of more than 40 degrees Celsius. The impact has been debilitating: water transport has been hit badly; power generation has suffered, leading to rise in energy prices to record highs; and food prices have risen sharply.
Not that Europe has not suffered droughts before; there have been droughts in 2003, 2010 and 2018, which were also compared to the 1540 event. The 2018 drought was also quite severe, but the European Commission’s research wing has warned that preliminary data suggests that “the current drought still appears to be the worst since at least 500 years”. Research Commissioner Mariya Gabriel said Europe is currently witnessing a wildfire season sensibly above the average and an important impact on crop production. “Climate change is undoubtedly more noticeable every year,” she added. A “severe drought” has been present in many places all year, but has been expanding and worsening since early August, according to the European Commission’s report.
The report has warned that the situation is worsening in countries including Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, Moldova, Ireland and the UK. The researchers’ stark warning follows rapidly sinking water levels in rivers across Europe, which have exposed relics of the past like the so-called “hunger stones” warning of potential famine, and the sunken remains of the World War II Nazi ships. Apart from agriculture, drinking water supplies and hydroelectric power, the most visible impact has been on waterways, as Europe depends heavily on rivers to move cargo in an economical manner. With water levels down to less than a metre in many stretches in several rivers, the movement of large ships has been affected.
Researchers and academicians of Climate System Science say the hot weather and heat waves are a result of climate change. In their view, it’s virtually impossible for the heat waves to have happened without the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. “The rainfall is much more difficult to attribute to climate change, but taken together, the sort of drought that we are experiencing now at the moment is much more likely now with increased greenhouse gas concentrations,” said Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate System Science at the University of Reading. Droughts are not uncommon in the earth’s natural climate system and therefore are not uncommon in Europe either. But the severity of this year’s drought, a result of a long dry spell and prolonged and significant deviation from normal weather patterns, is being attributed to climate change.
Rainfall has been scanty in several European countries. In the UK, which has an official drought declared in several regions, this year has been unusually dry for 60 per cent of the counties. The situation in other countries like France, Germany and the Netherlands isn’t much different with 60 per cent of the European continent’s land mass facing agricultural drought. But it’s not only Europe that is experiencing record-breaking extreme weather conditions; there has been a surge of extreme weather events worldwide - heatwaves, flash floods, droughts, forest fires, storms, etc. Internationally, researchers and climate experts have credited this rise in extreme weather events to climate change.
Recently, China experienced an unprecedented rise in temperature that led to one of the worst heat waves that the country has faced in 60 years. Media reports say that China is also headed towards a serious drought. In the US, over 40 per cent of the area is reportedly under drought conditions. In South Asia, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh experienced a rampage of torrential rainfall, flash floods and heat waves this year. As more extreme and intense weather events have increased in recent years, climate experts say understanding the role climate change plays in these events will help us better prepare for them in future.
The writer is a senior independent Mumbai-based journalist. He tweets at @ali_chougule
