The old magic is no longer working. Modi’s personal charisma and his powerful oratory - ‘Modi hai to Mumkin hai – is falling flat. The disillusioned public in Haryana are no longer interested in listening to him. His first election rally held in Kurukshetra earlier this month turned out to be a flop. Although it was the first public rally the prime minister was addressing after Lok Sabha elections, only a small crowd collected to listen to him. Worse was to follow: when he started speaking, they began walking out.
The message was loud and clear. The BJP is coming to terms with the disastrous performance of former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar. Both he and his posters were missing from the pulpit from where Modi spoke even though he is the member of parliament from nearby Karnal. But the public present at the venue also wanted to know in what capacity the present chief minister Naib Singh Saini was standing alongside Modi since there has been no official notification of his having been made chief minister.
Rajesh Kumar, who owns a khoka selling chai on the main GT road, and who attended the rally said, ‘There is a wave of anti-incumbency. We want change. We gathered to listen to the prime minister hoping that he would touch on the issues of pehlwan, kisan and jawan. He made no reference to any of the issues that ignite us.’ Kumar was referring to the farmers’ demand for MSP, the removal of the Agniveer scheme, and some explanation as to why the ‘protest of our daughters (women wrestlers) who sweated to bring medals was crushed by the Delhi police.
Many wanted the prime minister to make some reference to Vinesh Phogat, contesting from Julana, a mere 100 kilometres away. They are willing to forget that the crowds who had gathered to meet her were so large and enthusiastic when she returned from the Olympics in Paris that it took Phogat 24 hours to reach her home.
The BJP has in the last decade tried to win over the OBC and Dalit vote, which is 40 per cent of the state’s electorate. In the Lok Sabha election, 68 per cent of the Dalits backed the INDIA alliance; subsequently BJP lost five of the ten Lok Sabha seats it had won in 2019. The Congress now hopes to forge an alliance of the Jat, Dalit and Muslim voters. To counter this, BJP changed its ticket distribution strategy, giving tickets to Jats, OBCs and even two Muslim candidates in Nuh district. No saying whether it will work.
Addressing a subsequent rally in Sonipat’s Gohana, Modi talked of his meeting in the United States with corporate giants and claimed that they are eager to invest in India. He also talked about how industrialisation was necessary for job creation. His speech touched a raw nerve with the crowd given that in the last ten years, not a single labour-intensive industry has come up in this state. Worse, leading economist Prof Santosh Mehrotra points out that the Modi government has ensured that most of the new industries have gone to Gujarat or to south India. ‘Otherwise why would thousands of relatively young men go to the US and Canada using the dunki route?’ asked Mehrotra.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s stats released last year emphasise that Haryana has the highest rate of unemployment at 38 per cent. It has increased this past year. BJP insiders say there are three power centres: Modi run PMO, Amit Shah and his advisory group and Khatter who continues to call the shots from behind-the-scenes. All three are working at cross-purposes.
The anger against the government is across all castes because the farmers here come from across all communities. They cannot forget that 750 farmers have sacrificed their lives to ensure all farmers get a fair price for their crops. Whether one travels to south Haryana dominated by Yadavs, Gujjars, Muslims or to Dalit bastis, the mood is for change. They have not been able to build a cadre in Haryana. The Haryanvi is much too independent minded. In a bipolar election, the Congress has always won. The independents and other parties like JJP and INLD will not collectively get even ten votes,’ predicted one political observer.
