In view of historical perspective, politicians have been grabbing the power by following Machiavellian principle of showing complete disrespect to means, the morality and values thereby sticking to end which holds true to ‘King Maker’ and Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal who fell from the grace today after facing humiliating defeat while seeking trust vote in Nepal Parliament .
While seeking trust vote in Nepal parliament, Prachanda faced the worst type of humiliating defeat as he got 63 votes (Rashtria Swatantra Party-21,CPN(US)-10 and his party-32) as against 194 votes of new coalition combination of Nepali Congress (89 MPs) and Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (78 MPs) which also got support from other smaller parties like Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Janata Samajwadi Party (Upendra faction) etc. in the house of 275 where majority mark was 138 only. Oli has staked claim after President Ram Chandra Poedel invited the political parties having strength to form the government.
In a positive move, Dr. Rajan Bhattarai, the Foreign Affairs Department chief and a Standing Committee member of the CPN-UML emphasized that CPN-UML believes that Nepal's progress or the welfare of its people can be achieved only by adopting a Pro-India stance. He made it clear that the party's chairman, KP Sharma Oli, is keen on taking Nepal-India relations to new heights thereby aligning with the requirement and urgency of the modern era.
Due to fragile nature of democracy in Nepal, unabated and persistent instability has been trademark of the government which is evident from 16 time change of guards in the span of 13 years thereby hitting the interests of the common people in the country besides pushing the country into financial crisis and debt liabilities especially huge loans advanced by China.
In a midnight swoop and a dramatic turn of events on July 9, a secret deal was clinched between two former Prime ministers viz. Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali and K.P.S. Oli of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) which sealed the fate of current PM,Pushpa Kamal Dahal,Prachanda. In this manner, yet another coalition of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Nepali Congress came into existence today following the humiliating defeat of Prachanda, a diehard loyalist of China’ on the floor of house .New regime will be headed by Ex PM,Oli which had preceded withdrawal of the support to current PM, on July 3, 2024 thereby reducing it into minority. The Janata Samajwadi party led by Ashok Rai having 7 PMs also withdrew the support and recalled three ministers from Prachanda government.
The coalition government will be dominated by Pro India, Nepali Congress, though a die-hard communist leader, former PM, Oli will be heading it for a term of one half year which will be followed by a takeover by former PM, Deuba of Nepali congress as agreed by two coalition partners.
Foreign policy experts say that major factors responsible for the collapse of collation of Prachnda-Oli, duo, included Power Struggle, style of functioning of prime minister, Policy Differences, Coalition Dynamics and Coalition Dynamics which may lead to more stable dispensation comprising of Nepali Congress, Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and Janata Samajwadi party.
Challenges Before New Government
1. Amidst the toppling game, midnight power sharing agreement between two former Prime ministers, viz. Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Nepali Congress and K.P.S.Oli chairman of Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) was signed on July 5, 2024 thereby leading to a sudden change of regime in Nepal. New coalition government of Oli and Deuba is bound to face multiple challenges which will be key to success otherwise its fallout could be midterm polls. Political observers feel that the fragile nature of the new government consisting of the communists (Pro China) and Nepali Congress (Pro India) having opposing ideologies could pose a major challenge to keep them in unison and amalgamated.
2. Oli and Deuba combine will be under compulsion to keep equidistance with two regional powers viz. India and China which have got geo-political and strategic interests in the affairs of Nepal.
3. Oli’s previous stint as PM was marked by his extreme Anti India action of redrawing the map which had shown Indian territories including Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura and Kalapani as part of Nepal. It had exasperated India which rejected this misadventure thereby terming it as baseless besides being an attempt to spoil ties. Now ,as dominant partner in the coalition, the onus of checking this tendency will lie on Deuba to prevail upon Oli to come out of Anti-India mentality and protect age-old relations between two nations.
4. communists regimes led by Prachanda always gave clear indications about the commitment to China which will expect new government to go ahead with Belt and Road (BRI) initiative especially when outgoing PM has approved the proposal which had been signed between two countries on May 12, 2017.Now Oli’s government will have to take logical step to keep it abeyance to avoid any irritant from Indian side .The former PM, Prachnda had reiterated Nepal’s commitment to expedite BRI during his September, 2023 visit to Beijing. At present, it will be an uphill task for Oli to stick to his predecessors’ resolve to toe China’s line about BRI as Nepali congress is totally opposed to it hence chances of any progress seem to be remote.
5. It will be a test of the new government to deal with India’s Agnipath scheme which is one of the major irritants so far. India had launched the Agneepath scheme on June 15, 2022 which was extended to Nepal also but it is still in limbo in Himalayan Kingdom owing to certain reservations. Field reports suggest that there are unemployed youths who may be keen to join the army as Agniveers but two previous governments had dragged its feet and the 3rd one may not be different. The Indian army had planned to recruit 40,000 Agnieers in 2022 and former army chief Manoj Pande had made it clear to withdraw the vacancies if the decision was not filled by the government but nothing has been done so far and there is every chance of rejection by the communists' government.
6. Nepal's border issues with India, including disputes over territories require a multifaceted approach. The new government might adopt a new strategy which includes engaging in high-level bilateral talks with Indian counterparts to discuss and resolve border disputes amicably. Strengthening the Nepal-India Joint Boundary Commission to expedite the resolution of boundary issues through technical and diplomatic means may yield positive results. Increasing security and surveillance along disputed border areas to prevent illegal activities and unauthorized incursions may be of utmost importance to both countries.
7. China has entrapped Nepal like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh etc into its “Debt Policy” and advanced a huge loans of Nepali Rs 1,500,000,000 to Rs 2,400,750,000 which may take centuries to repay. Finally, an action plan must be formulated to build and improve the infrastructures in border areas to enhance accessibility and assert presence in disputed regions. By adopting these strategies, the new government in Nepal can address the challenges posed by the Agnipath scheme and the ongoing border issues with India in a balanced and effective manner.
Analysts feel that by withdrawing support from Prachanda and joining hands with the Nepali Congress , Oli is aimed at establishing a more stable and cohesive government, leveraging a new alliance to secure his leadership and navigate the complex political landscape of Nepal. But the survival of the coalition will depend solely on mutual trust of partners and implementation of balanced diplomatic strategy and refrain from offending two regional giants which had been lacking in the past.
(Writer is political analyst having six year stint in foreign posting in Nepal during transition of the Democracy)
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