Prior to organizing a big show of the participating nations of Belt and Road initiative (BRI) in Beijing, Italy’s prime minister, Georgia Meloni conveyed to Chinese premier, Li Qiang on the sideline of G20 summit in Delhi that her country has decided to pull out of BRI project owing to its disadvantages to Italy as compared to China.
Meloni , however, maintained that it would not affect her country’s relationships with China. The Chinese prime minister tried to persuade her but national level debate in Italy favors withdrawal from the BRI project which may force Italy’s PM to keep nation’ interest above other considerations.
United States And European Union Do Not Favor Italy’s Linkage With BRI
In view of fallout of BRI in South Asian countries, European Union and United States might exert pressure on Italy’s prime minister Meloni to save her country from debt trap policy of China which is implementing its plan throughBRI .PM has however denied any pressure from US president, Joe Biden but she is treading the path cautiously as withdrawal from BRI may spoil ties between two countries as Italy’s businessmen support the investment through China’s initiative .
Experts opine that BRI is truly global endeavor and 39 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have joined it besides 34 in Europe and central Asia and 25 in east Asia and pacific,18 in Latin America and caribbean,17 in Middle East and North Africa and six in South Asia which will make it difficult for America and EU to neutralize Chinese influence. Economists say that the United States normally helps poor nations through hundred percent grant but China’s debt Trap Policy is in contrast to such magnanimity hence loans keep on piling up thereby destroying the economies of such nations and Pakistan is the biggest victim of Dragon's strategy.
Experts say that Italy may show the way to other countries which have been entrapped by China through its lucrative but dangerous BRI which is evident from Nepal’s lukewarm response to 150-km railway line connecting Kathmandu and Kerung in Southern Tibet which was agreed upon in 2018 and 2022 but it has not materialized. A proposed project of Nepal under BRI to develop Madan Bhandari university in 2019 has remained confined to paper.
China is poised to celebrate 1oth anniversary of BRI in October,2023 and it has signed working documents with more than 150 nations and 30 international organizations with 1.4 trillion USD investment but it is facing rough weather in several countries and Italy’s decision to quit BRI is primarily influenced by America which is trying to persuade its allies to abandon this project as it will prove dangerous on long term basis.
Economists say that Italy’s defense minister, Guido Crosetto’s recently disapproval and expressed his strong observations about previous Conte’s government to be a part of China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) has put the future of this project in jeopardy which may spoil the existing ties between two countries. Crosetto described the BRI agreement with China as “wicked” which has done nothing to improve the exports between his country and China. He had lambasted the BRI and described it as improvised which reflects Italy’s determination to get out of this project.
Stage Is Set For Italy To Say Goodbye To BRI
Prime minister of Italy, Georgia Meloni has already held discussion with various stakeholders though she is having clear vision about BRI and made it clear prior to her election as PM in Sept. last year that there is no political will on her part to favor Chinese expansion into Italy or Europe which may seal the future of BRI. Experts say that Italy joined BRI four years ago and the pact is for renewal next year but indications of pulling out of China’s BRI may have negative fallout as it may encourage other nations to rethink their strategy to continue with BRI.
President Xi's Expansion Policy of developing infrastructure through BRI spreading over 150 nations may help in fulfilment of its ambition to replace the United States as a major power. A huge investment of $ 1.4 trillion through BRI aims at creating a modern-day-silk road connecting Asia, Africa and Europe. It has brightened the chances of waking into the debt trap policy of China and countries like Pakistan have already become victims of this dangerous strategy. As per data, South Asian Countries have been pushed into debt trap policy as fallout has been serious vis- a -vis accumulation of loans which have burdened their economies. Except India and Bhutan, other nations like Pakistan walked into debt policy of China through BRI and signed a 25.4 billion USD agreement in 2013 which has slowed down and the same dilemma is being faced by Nepal also.
India Opposes China’s BRI
China does not miss an opportunity to push its ambitious project of BRI hence a paragraph was inserted in the final draft of New Delhi declaration issued at the end of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)leaders’ summit held on July 4,2023 which was duly rejected by India. An identical formulation was used by China during the Samarkand declaration in 2022 and India did not budge from its stand to oppose Xi’s pet project of BRI.
The original draft of SCO reflects China resolve to push it through at every platform hence it reads “Reaffirming their support for China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) initiative, the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, Russian Federation, Republic of Tajikistan and Republic of Uzbekistan note the ongoing work to jointly implement this project, including efforts to link the construction of the Eurasian Economic Union and BRI.” India is averse to Pakistan’s blind support to BRI which may pose security threat to Kashmir as BRI passes through POK which technically means Indian territory and adjacent to Kashmir valley.
Analysts opine that China’s well planned BRI is being considered by several nations as a threat to their economies in long term which may act as an eye opener to them but China is advancing with a speed to implement its strategy which is focused on cornering the United States and European Nations. Italy was first nation in G7 group which became part of BRI but it may not be possible for PM Meloni to ignore the United States and EU hence its departure from BRI seems to be imminent in future.
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)
