The Maharashtra Assembly elections have suddenly acquired the halo of a make or break election for the all the political formations in the state and outside as well. Maharashtra has the most number of Lok Sabha seats after Uttar Pradesh. During the Lok Sabha elections it helped in breaking the BJP’s back, and along with UP it broke the myth that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was invincible. The Assembly elections will be a confirmative test of the 2024 results, to ascertain if it was a fluke or a statement of fact that Modi magic is a matter of history.
Maharashtra is one state where, despite its phenomenon growth nationally, the BJP has never won enough trust of the people so as to manage to form the government on its own, without the support of any other party. With the rise of Modi in Delhi, BJP formed the government in Maharashtra with the help of the Shiv Sena and remained together till 2019 when they split. Shiv Sena leaders managed to stitch a rainbow coalition with Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Congress. This was a big setback for the BJP, which in vengeance broke the Shiv Sena into two. This was followed by a split in the NCP too. In these elections, six political parties are fighting to prove their relevance, divided into two camps. The Maha Vikas Aghadi has to prove that Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and NCP led by Sharad Pawar were betrayed by their own people and a positive verdict will help them earn back the tag of the original party of which they had been robbed.
The BJP under Modi has corrupted the whole system to such an extent that despite the Supreme Court calling the installation of the Eknath Shinde government illegal, the government continues. Every rule has been flouted, and it was also acknowledged by the highest court; nonetheless, the Shinde government claims to be the legitimate government. It is only the people’s court which can overturn the injustice done to Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. The same script was enacted with Sharad Pawar’s NCP. This is a golden opportunity for both the parties to expose the conspiracy in which constitutional institutions were shamelessly complicit.
But other than these two parties, this election is equally important for the two remaining parties, ie, the BJP and the Congress. Parliament elections broke the BJP’s confidence. The party that aimed for more than 370 seats was reduced to only 240, that is 32 seats less required for the majority in the assembly. After the general elections the BJP had to embarrassingly accept the support of regional parties. In the earlier two terms, the BJP had a majority on its own, and it was not dependent on other parties for its survival. Modi, who has the Midas touch, was this time about to lose in Varanasi. His victory was nothing less than a humiliation. The leader who was a guarantee of a win in every election, be it national or state, struggled to win in his own constituency.
More than the loss in Ayodhya, it was a humiliating victory in Varanasi that damaged the morale of the BJP office bearers and workers. Modi was rejected in Maharashtra so badly that the party could win only 9 seats out of 28 that it contested. It’s strike rate was 32% where as its traditional rival, Congress had spectacular success. It contested 17 seats and won 13 with the strike rate of 76%. Once again, the Congress and the BJP are pitted against each other in the Vidarbha region. If Mahayuti has to form its government then the BJP has to defeat the Congress with a massive margin in this region. Otherwise, the BJP will have no option but to warm the seats of the Opposition in the Maharashtra House.
On the other hand, a good show by the BJP might resurrect the career of former chief minister of Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis. After many decades, the state has witnessed the rise of a leader who has the knack and ambition to eclipse his contemporaries. He has the guile of Sharad Pawar to make a mark in national politics too. Unfortunately, like Sharad Pawar, he too is a victim of Delhi politics. There are forces in Delhi who do not want Fadnavis to rise beyond a point that make him a contender for the top job in the post-Modi era in the BJP. It was sad and tragic to see him being demoted to the deputy chief minister’s post. This was the man who, after Vasantrao Naik, was the only leader who had completed a five-year term from 2014 to 2019. Even Sharad Pawar could not do that despite being the chief minister three times.
Rumours then said that after the split of the Shiv Sena, when everyone was expecting the return of Fadnavis as CM, the conspiracy to install Eknath Shinde as chief minister was hatched in Delhi. During the day, Fadnavis had himself held a press conference and told the media that he won’t be part of the government but he had to swallow his words after a phone call from the prime minister. Since then Shinde has emerged as a leader in his own right and Fadnavis has had no option but to play a subordinate role. And since the caste census and reservation played a decisive role in the 2024 general election in Maharashtra, and was considered to be one of the main reasons for the BJP’s bad performance in the state, therefore if the same is repeated for a Brahmin leader it will be difficult to hold his ground. That is what makes this election a do-or-die one for him.
The INDIA bloc led by the Congress at the national level had gained tremendous momentum after the 2024 elections but that momentum has been dented by the Congress’s stunning defeat in Haryana. This was the state in which even the BJP had given up. Haryana has given breathing space to the BJP and RSS. It has boosted the morale of the party cadre. If INDIA wins Maharashtra then there will be serious question marks not only over the viability of Modi as leader within the Hindutva fold but also about Hindutva as an alternate thought process and as an election strategy.
A victory for INDIA can only be caused by the good performance of the Congress, and if that happens then Rahul Gandhi’s stock will rise again in national politics, and the debate which he has started about social justice will gain more currency as an antidote to Hindutva. A loss will further create confusion in the Opposition camp, and even more in the Congress. Rahul’s leadership will again be questioned. Modi will again gain the aura of invincibility. Hindu-Muslim polarisation will get more legitimacy. And the country will see more of “Batenge toh katenge” kind of slogans which will further poison the social fabric of the country.
Moreover, party hijacking will get a further boost. The BJP will be more enthused to hijack parties who are opposed to it. A BJP victory in Maharashtra can lead to a split in the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha. Naveen Patnaik is already on a weak wicket. He has not shown any interest in breathing new life into his party since after the 2024 election. The old and the new in the party are both waiting to see which way Maharashtra swings. A win for BJP might engineer an exodus in the BJD. Other regional parties like Bhartiya Rashtra Samiti (BRS), Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and AAP will feel more insecure. A new wave of defection could start in the Himachal Pradesh Congress too.
Therefore, Maharashtra elections have wider ramifications. A win or a loss, either way, will unleash new energies which will unsettle many political formations. No wonder it is being watched with so much interest.
The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B
