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It has taken five months from the time the Election Commission ruled out simultaneous elections to both Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir in March, to veer around to announcing elections in the truncated Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In March the Election Commission had said, “Jaise hi chunav khatam hogi, uske turant baad karvayenge. Jaldi se jaldi.” What explains the tardy pace of the delivery of this promise?
It has taken New Delhi a long time to get a reality check on what it has crafted in Jammu and Kashmir, since the abrogation of the Article 370 in August 2019. And it had to wait to combine it with the other State Assembly elections (Haryana, in this instance) in order to give it the impression that it is the normal course of democracy. It has been a bitter pill to swallow, once it crossed the tipping point and entered the zone of diminishing returns.
Unfulfilled Promises Post-Abrogation of Article 370
Delhi's experiment with Jammu and Kashmir has yielded returns that are distinctly underwhelming. The longer New Delhi held on to the vestiges of its claims on Article 370, the less there was to hold on. This move could sound like a dirge for Delhi-led politics as usual.
If we are to go by the promises made at that time of abrogation versus the delivery, the pickings are comprehensively lean, whether it has to do with the economy or politics. Political engineering that has been attempted in the run up to the Lok Sabha blew up on the engineers’ faces. In the Valley, candidates that had been identified for truck with the BJP lost.
Political Engineering Backfires in the Valley
Sajjad Lone from Baramullah lost and has retreated into temporary self-exile from politics. Apni Party president Syed Mohammed Altaf Bhukari, whose party was formed with great fanfare after the abrogation and who met both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah with great joy accepted the result of BJP’s political kiss of death “with grace and humility” after having forfeited his deposit and his party, losing from both Srinagar and Anantnag. In Jammu the BJP has lost its vote share in the process. For BJP politically there is nothing left to gain in Jammu and Kashmir, nothing that it can hope for. This development represents making the best of the situation.
A big factor, is that the new Lokh Sabha is not to its advantage as is evident from the way the ruling party has acted on bills like the Wakf board and the broadcasting bill. Agha Syed Rohulla Mehdi, the National Conference’s Srinagar candidate, on August 5 launched into a long harangue against abrogation of Article 370 in the Parliament with Jagadambika Pal on the Chair trying to sush him, and direct him to speak on the budget instead.
Rising Anti-BJP Sentiments Amidst Lingering Anti-India Feelings
In Kashmir, after five years, while anti-India sentiments are still high, anti –BJP sentiments are higher. These are not going to go away in a hurry even with a new political lot in the Assembly. But the hope is they will lose steam by and by. There is restiveness in the region, and it is pent up, waiting for release.
Unpredictable Political Forces Emerge
The abrogation has unleashed new political forces that are unpredictable. Outliers have come into the mainstream and will continue to do so, as evidenced by the election of Engineer Rashid, who took the Baramullah parliamentary seat - from both Sajjad Lone, Delhi's poster boy, and Omar Abdullah, the poster boy of traditional politics - and who languishes in Tihar jail on a terror funding charge.
The Assembly elections will see similar developments which Delhi will perforce mull from afar. Scope for political manipulation is far reduced now. Now Delhi can distance itself from the blowback, since there can be a local political leader to spread the blame.
Violence Continues to Escalate in the Region
The other development that concentrated Delhi’s mind must have been the continued and spreading violence in that region. Violence has spread to new areas. It is not as though they are unprovoked. Prime Minister Modi, in the heat of his election battle from which he emerged significantly bruised, had this to say while he was canvassing in Maharasthra this April: “When bombs burst, dilli ki sarkar (Congress) Pakistan ko love letter bhejthe the, love letter.
In response Pakistan sent more terrorists than Congress sent love letters. Pakistan played khoon ki holi with India. Yeh naya Bharat hai, ghar mein ghuske maarta hai.” Which would explain the attack on a bus in Reasi on June 9, the day Modi took oath again as Prime Minister; Pakistan’s way of saying, “Hello, we are still here.” The more things change, the more they remain the same.
The Prime Minister’s fond hope that demonitisation would cut funds for terror were obviously ill founded. Attacks, that have taken the lives of over 40 soldiers in Jammu alone in less than one and a half years, are significant pointers that terrorists continue to be manufactured across the border and nothing that the government has done in the last five years has been able to stop it. Rather, after The Guardian reported 20 terrorists in Pakistan have been taken out by India since 2020, given the state of play with both Canada and the US over similar allegations, New Delhi doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on.
India’s Waning Diplomatic Leverage
It cannot turn to Washington for help in admonishing Pakistan even, considering both Washington and Islamabad have the same complaint against Delhi. What is low cost strategy for Pakistan continues to be high cost for Delhi.
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New Delhi’s Strategic Missteps: Ladakh in Limbo and Diplomatic Challenges
New Delhi’s grand strategy is unspooling. Ladakh is in a limbo five years on, even as the Chinese hem us in closer. As Prime Minister Modi makes his balancing trip to Ukraine, here is something for him to think about: Maybe it is time to send his eighty year old (or is it 79?) National Security Adviser Ajith Doval to partake of some biriyani with the DG, ISI in some third country? After all that is what he did in Shopian on August 7, 2019, to promote the new normal in Kashmir.
