India-US-China are three important players in the international arena whose interests are deeply embedded with each other. This reality forces them to keep weighing their options vis-à-vis others at regular intervals. The US is keen to check the rise of China in the Indo-Pacific while India shares a 4000-kms long border with China and a 61 year-old border dispute. China wants to be the superpower no. 1 by 2049, the centenary year of Communist revolution in China led by the legendary Mao.
India, a direct land neighbour of China in Asia, is always concerned about China’s territorial ambitions. Despite so many rounds of discussions, even today, the India-China border dispute does not show any sign of resolution. In fact three years ago, India had a bitter stand-off with China in Galwan area. Recently on the third anniversary Galvan stand-off in June 2023, many scholars and former diplomats had warned Indian establishment to be watchful of ever-ambitious China.
India-China border dispute goes back to the 1950s when India was shouting ‘Hindi-Chini bhai bhai’ and suddenly woke up to the rude shock of Chinese soldiers marching in the Indian territories. It was a deeply humiliating defeat that the Indian army had suffered. Since then there has been innumerable efforts and discussions to resolve the border dispute. But in vain.
Cut to June 2020. Some 20-odd Indian soldiers were killed by the Chinese army at Galwan at the Line of Actual Control. Though the Chinese troops were stopped in their tracks, the message was clear from the Chinese side that they are not happy with the status-quo and are keen to seek change to their advantage. Though they have lost the opportunity in 2020, it surely does not mean they have given up the project. China has been periodically raking up the border issue. In December 2022, China opened a forward post in Tawang. This attempt too was thwarted by the Indians.
The Galwan clash that took place on 15-16 June 2020 was indeed a watershed in India-China relations in the 21st century. This was the first time when the soldiers of both armies actually clashed with each other. The last fact-to-face clash had taken place in October 1975. There is an agreement in place between India and China that prohibits use of firearms. In Galwan, the Chinese soldiers used clubs that had nails embedded in them. Indians retorted with fiberglass batons and in some cases, used stones too. Some independent reports insists that Chinese lost more men than India. India learnt a bitter lesson and has ensured more personnel to man and patrol these sensitive posts. Now there is a disengagement at five points and demilitarized buffer zones have been established at these places. These buffer zones have become new point of controversy as the Indian strategic community maintain that they mean nothing but a loss of territory for India.
As if this was not enough, China is busy building infrastructure in the region which includes two bridges on its side for easier movement of men and materials. India too is enhancing its infrastructure on its side which includes roads, bridges, tunnels, helipads, etc. This, however, does not augur well for peace in the area.
Despite these altercations, the trade between China and India is booming where India imports more from its Himalayan neighbour. Indian leaders must note that India-China relationship will always need continuous watching. China never settle for anything less than what suits its strategic interests and long term ambition.
In 21st century, even US is worried about the rise and ambitions of China and sees India as a valuable partner to challenge China. This is why the US had rolled a red carpet for Modi during his recently concluded state visit to US. Like Japan, now India enjoys an important place in US strategic thinking. Since Obama’s days in White House, the US has been talking about US-India relationship as one of the ‘defining relationships of 21st century’. In the first week of June 2023, Mr. Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary was in Delhi. He talked of India as a ‘Major Defence Partner’ of the US since 2016. The US establishment is well aware that of all the Quad members, India is the only country that has a huge land-border with China. The annual Shangri-La Dialogue, concluded its 20th edition in first week of June 2023, noted these shifting trends in Asia. However India cannot afford to be US client state in this area nor can it anger the giant China beyond a point. This demands high level of diplomatic skill that has no room for jingoism.
The relations with China has added dimension of inter-party rivalry in India. When China attacked India in October 1962, Congress was in power and country was led by Pandit Nehru, a bete noire of the BJP. The saffron party does not lose a single chance to run him down. Now Congress is in opposition and BJP is in power. No wonder on Monday, 20th June 2023, Congress demanded a White Paper on the border situation with China along the Line of Actual Control [LAC]. Congress further wants to embarrass Modi by often mentioning his 19th June 2020 comments to an all-party meeting that ‘neither has anyone entered our border, nor any post is in possession of others’. All that aside, watching China continuously is our need. That should not be lost sight of.
