Even with the final figures yet to come in, it is certain that ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) has defeated BJP on two key counts – seat and vote share. The Mamata Banerjee-led government has either bagged (or is leading in) 29 seats – up from 18 in 2019 – out of 42, while its vote share has gone up by approximately 3 percent; the BJP, in turn, has lost at least half a dozen seats compared to that in 2019. The victory is attributed to Mamata Banerjee’s “mentorship” and party’s general secretary Abhishek’s “drive” by the cadres and the leaders.
After being in power for well over a decade, what has worked for Mamata, Abhisekh and the team is a question that needs to be asked and answered – more by the state BJP than any other interest groups. Nearly unanimously the poll pundits and the public accepted on Tuesday night that the main weapon in Mamata’s armory is still working – the direct cash subsidies. Lakkhir Bhandar – the welfare scheme to provide basic income support of female heads of the family – has done remarkably well.
Those who criticized Lakkhir Bhandar and other welfare schemes as “freebies” have been forced to accept that it has worked. Secondly, TMC feared that an apparent rise of Left Front and Congress may split the 25- 30 percent Muslim vote which had firmly backed Mamata. This is one reason why possibly the TMC ‘engineered’ a split between a predominantly Muslim party Indian Secular Front and the Left-Congress alliance. Thirdly, the Modi wave, which was omnipresent in 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Bidhan Sabha polls, was definitely missing. While at this stage it is difficult to indicate what percentage of polls were influenced by Modi meetings – more than twenty in the state – it is a fact that the energy which the Prime Minister managed to pump in the previous polls was palpably missing. Possibly, this was a reason why BJP’s campaign was marred by infighting. One of the key weapons in BJP’s armory was implementation of the citizenship act.
While the data is not available to indicate if it has worked or not, one input tells us that it has not worked like it did in the last polls. In nearly half a dozen seats where refugee votes are a factor, BJP has either been defeated or was seen trailing. The victory of Shantanu Thakur – a central Minister – indicates that CAA has worked in the bordering Bongaon constituency, but not in other ones like Arambagh, Cooch Behar, Krishnanagar, Sreerampur or Ranaghat, unlike in the previous election. The last two polls (2019, 2021) were communally shrill and divisive. This has not been the case this time around, in 2024.
