It may be sheer coincidence that the culmination of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US and the first of the potentially several Opposition meets in quest of an elusive unity happened on the same day. It was however natural for the prime minister to steal the headlines, given his inherent talent for keeping one eye on optics even while conducting the serious business of the state. But the Patna meet of the anti-Modi leaders was not without significance. For, even as the most consequential relationship in foreign affairs moves to a much higher plane, facilitating a greater cooperation in defence, hi-tech, strategic field, etc, the Opposition effort to try and oust Modi in the 2024 poll gets underway.
That the US visit would further burnish the Modi image at home, and would be fully exploited in the coming poll for boosting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prospects, is a given. The gaggle of Opposition leaders that assembled in Patna last Friday cannot do anything but grin and bear it. As it is, more than the BJP it is the Modi connect with the ordinary people that has been their undoing all these years. And despite pious assurances by speaker after speaker from the Nitish Kumar podium to unitedly challenge Modi, the thought might still have crossed their minds that given his high popularity ratings, even if the Humpties and Dumpties were to come together on the anti-Modi platform, success in the parliamentary poll was not guaranteed. For, the democratic process has deepened in the Indian mind; people, even if poor and illiterate, are politically aware. Increasingly, in a parliamentary system, they elect a leader as prime minister, not necessarily put a political party in power.
Yes, minus Modi a united Opposition taking on the BJP could pose huge problems for the saffron party. But the reason why the Congress’s putative prime ministerial candidate Rahul Gandhi along with the nominee party president Mallikarjun Kharge deigned to grace the Nitish meet was that they are aware of their diminished position in the electoral stakes. Others from Mamata Banerjee to Arvind Kejriwal, Sharad Pawar to Laloo Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav to Uddhav Thackeray’s self-appointed ventriloquist Sanjay Raut and a few other smaller fry harped on the same theme: Get Modi and his investigating agencies off our back and let us get back to the happy days again. But it looks like even if they were all to get together — and the effort were to gain momentum after the second such conclave in the Congress-ruled Shimla next month — Modi is no pushover. After the Karnataka win, the Congress will try the freebie formula in the coming assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Forcing other parties to compete in promising revadis might be a race to the bottom of the financial barrel as far as the states are concerned, but in their recklessness to score electoral success they are unlikely to be restrained even by the Election Commission and the higher courts. A recent example of what may result from a freebie spree is available from Punjab where the AAP government has raised VAT on petroleum products to meet a tiny part of the huge bill for freebies. Karnataka too sooner than later will have to pay a price for implementing Rahul Gandhi’s “five commitments”, aka freebies.
Meanwhile, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal, typically, struck a sour note at the Patna meet, insisting that Rahul Gandhi commit himself then and there to vote against the ordinance which has deprived him of the power to transfer and post officers at his sweet will. He wants an assurance from the Congress that it will vote against the measure when it comes up for approval in the Rajya Sabha. Now, the Congress may well do so, but it isn’t likely to be dictated to by someone like Kejriwal who has always punched above his weight. Personality and programmatic clashes and contradictions like these will still pave the topsy-turvy way towards Opposition unity.
While the BJP under Modi-Shah is expected to present a picture of unity and cohesion. Of course, there are genuine problems of joblessness, consumer inflation, even communal tensions, but over the years the voter has realised that these hardships have been an endemic part of everyday life, whatever be the colour of the regime. In short, parties ganging up together have been tried and tested — and were found wanting. Therefore, the chances of the voter staying with the most popular leader around come 2024 are higher than him/her plumping for an Opposition united negatively without a real meeting of minds and hearts.
