It would not be an exaggeration to say that the threat of armed conflict breaking out in Ukraine between Russia and the NATO alliance spearheaded by the US is very real. There are more than one lakh Russian troops massed near the Russia-Ukraine border. NATO forces are on alert.
The US has put 8,500 troops on standby for rapid deployment, while US President Joe Biden has promised more troops and military back-up if necessary, even as other NATO powers have massed troops, warships and planes for deployment along NATO’s eastern borders.
The US has already warned of sanctions, which Russia has promised to reciprocate. This has sent natural gas prices soaring, even as the US is leading efforts to source and secure natural gas supplies to Western Europe, currently in the grip of severe winter when energy demand peaks, in case Russia, which supplies a bulk of Western Europe’s natural gas requirements, cuts off supplies.
The prospects of war have already sent shivers across global stock markets, with Indian markets, too, reflecting the global nervousness.
Quite apart from the impact on financial markets, the prospect of any sort of showdown between two superpowers has far-reaching implications, particularly for India. Conflict between the US and Russia – even if economic and not military – will automatically change the power equation in the world.
A US focused on Russia and Europe would be less interested in China’s expansionism in Asia, particularly its increasingly aggressive posturing on Taiwan and its continued belligerence on India’s borders. India should join forces with other nations committed to peace in the region, such as Japan and Australia, to prevail upon the two superpowers to resolve their issues through negotiation and diplomacy.
