By now, it is confirmed news that Xi Jinping, President of China will not be attending the G-20 meeting to be held in India. This way Beijing has sent a strong signal to India and the West. It simply means China is not very keen on participating in this grouping and wants to reduce its involvement. China feels strongly about the politicization of the G-20. For quite some time, the G-20 has been taking strong positions on war in Ukraine, a political issue whereas the G-20 is essentially a body to discuss economic issues. It is also worth noting that China has not offered any explanation for Mr. Xi’s decision to skip the summit. Now China will be represented by second-ranked leader and Chinese premier Li Quiang who took office in March. This too is regarded as breaking the standard Chinese protocol according to which the President as Head of State [HoS] usually attends the G-20 and APEC Summits. And the Premier usually attends the East Asia Summits. This time this protocol has been broken on purpose.
In its capacity as the current chairman of G-20, India is hosting the annual summit of the influential grouping. This high profile summit will be attended by French President Emmanuel Macron, Australian Prime Minister Mr. Anthony Albanese, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, U K Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are among the G 20 leaders who have confirmed their participation. Mr. Modi will hand-over the baton of the G-20 presidency to Brazilian Prime Minister Mr. Lula on 10th September. It should also be borne in mind that the G-20 member-countries represent around 85% of the global GDP, over 75% of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.
In modern international relations, to attend or not to attend a summit, is a loaded decision and is meant to convey a message. Some scholars have put forth the idea that since China is not happy with the current status of its relations with India, Xi has decided to communicate this by skipping the summit. At the same time, there are others who feel that it should be taken to be a failure of India’s diplomacy. There is no end to this guess-game.
However, it cannot be ignored that the relations between China and the Western world have descended in recent years. The bones of contention are too many, ranging from Beijing’s reluctance to condemn ally Russia over its Ukraine invasion to Taiwan and tensions over technologies. This is perhaps why China has not taken the trouble to explain why Xi, who has participated in every G-20 summit since he took over more than a decade ago, is not coming to Delhi.
As expected this announcement generated comments from important capitals like Washington DC. President of USA Mr. Joe Biden said that though he is looking forward to his trip to India, he is disappointed that he will not meet Xi Jinping. Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi last spoke in person in November 2022 on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Bali. That meeting is the only time the two have met in person since Mr. Biden took office in January 2021.
It is now being asked whether Mr. Xi’s absence was not half-expected? Given the state of affairs on the India-China border and India’s consistent position on ‘war in Ukraine’ as this being ‘no era of wars’, this should have prepared India for such absence. Our position on the Ukraine war ruled both Xi and Putin out. The interpretation about the discussion between Modi and Xi at Johannesburg on the sidelines of the Brics Summit, was the early signs of unease between India and China. It left the stand-off where it has been for weeks and months.
China’s enthusiastic participation in the Brics and its absence from G-20 reflects its changing priorities. Like Brics, China is quite interested in giving more strength to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization [SCO]. These are the two fora where China is respected and can throw its weight around.
Xi’s cancellation has upset India’s plans. The tension between China and India over the border issue refuses to die down. Only last week China published a map showing Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as its territory. India expectedly lodged a strong protest against this map. Now in the midst of the G-20 Summit, this tension may prevent a joint communique at the end of the Summit. Till today this has not happened. Even in Bali, Indonesian President Mr. Widodo clinched a last-minute joint statement. It is alleged that China does not want India’s presidency of G-20 to end on successful notes. If India is unable to convince all G-20 members, including China and Russia and the Westerns members, to sign a joint statement, India’s presidency will be the first to end without such a communique since 2008. China will go to any length to embarrass India. This is why Xi’s absence is a well-thought move. Before this, the G-20 finance ministers failed to agree on a joint statement on the global economy. As usual India has a tough customer in China.
