The politics of polarisation is once again in full display ahead of the Jharkhand and Maharashtra Assembly elections. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge toh katenge’ (unite or be slaughtered) slogan to spur on Hindu unity has the full backing of the RSS. Prime Minister Narendra Modi only added value to the slogan by inserting his own ‘Ek hain toh safe hain’ (Be united to be safe) pitch. The slogans have not found acceptance among the BJP’s allies in Maharashtra such as the Shinde Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP fearing a communal backlash, but the saffron party is convinced that it is a vote catching strategy. Adityanath’s statement was first made at a rally in Agra in the context of the attack on Hindus in Bangladesh and he stressed on the necessity for Hindus of all castes to remain united. He later repeated the slogan at a rally in Maharashtra. PM Modi accused the Congress of trying to break social unity by dividing the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, OBCs and Dalits and urged all of them to come together to defeat the Grand Old Party’s allegedly nefarious designs. Be it Jharkhand or Maharashtra, the BJP is once again resorting to its campaign template of polarisation. With Adityanath, Amit Shah and Himanta Biswa Sarma sounding warning bells about illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh who would upset the demographic balance in Jharkhand, affecting the tribals, they are hoping to make inroads in a key votebank of the state. They have been relentless in their criticism of Hemant Soren for allegedly allowing unchecked infiltration from Bangladesh.
Buoyed by the Haryana poll verdict, the BJP is going all out to cash in on its tried and tested strategy of communal polarisation. Shocked by the 2024 Lok Sabha election result where a sizeable section of the Dalits had voted against it, the BJP has launched a course correction and is on a major Dalit outreach. The Congress had been successful in building a narrative that the BJP with its ‘400 paar’ campaign was intending to change the Constitution that would effectively root out quotas for the marginalised. The BJP is trying to counter that narrative by painting a picture of the Congress being anti-reservation right from the time of Jawaharlal Nehru. With the RSS now firmly behind it, the party is optimistic about the outcome of the forthcoming polls. The Sangh has a solid base in both Maharashtra and Jharkhand and the differences between the party and the organisation that had affected the Lok Sabha election outcome have been set aside. The BJP’s allies in Maharashtra, however, are not confident of this strategy because the Muslim vote is a big factor in almost 30 seats and they do not want to take any chances. Both Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde have warned against communalising the election campaign and said it will not work in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi has also lashed out at the BJP for its communal rhetoric and its alleged attempt to deflect from the core issues of development, unemployment and inflation. In Jharkhand the JMM’s promise of creating a Sarna code, a separate tribal categorisation, in the next census is vying with the BJP’s warning of diminishing number of tribals due to Bangladeshi infiltration.
This round of elections where Jharkhand will vote in two phases on 13 and 20 November and Maharashtra in a single phase on 20 November is crucial for the ruling BJP and the Opposition INDIA bloc as it will determine whether the Lok Sabha polls truly indicated a sea change in the country’s politics. The Assembly polls verdict along with crucial byelections will provide a clear direction to the ruling alliance as well as the Opposition bloc. The Congress performance in the two states will determine its standing in the INDIA alliance that was severely dented by its shock defeat in Haryana. The Haryana verdict also saw the BJP on a high and deciding to fall back on Narendra Modi as its key campaigner. The Lok Sabha election outcome that forced the BJP to depend on Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar’s JD-U for its survival at the Centre also resulted in the party retracting from its ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ and other PM-centred rhetoric. Now by addressing rallies almost daily in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Modi is back at centrestage. It is a clear indication that the BJP is confident of a positive result. It is hoping the slew of welfare schemes and freebies promised will do the trick if the communal rhetoric does not pay dividends. However, the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted, and everything is up in the air till Verdict Day on November 23.
