Exit polls cannot be excused their collective failure. The resulting hype over BJP’s big win not only made the share markets reach for the sky but two days later when the actual results came it made the party’s loss of 60-odd seats appear to be a far bigger upset than it may actually turn out to be. Thanks to the 400-paar noise and exit polls, BJP’s win appears a defeat while the Congress-led INDI block’s loss appears a victory. It is always hard to second-guess the mood of nearly a billion-strong electorate. Yet, Narendra Modi is still the strongest contender to continue as Prime Minister. That he will have to shed some of his Lone Ranger persona and become more open to collective and consultative style of governance may not be a bad thing after all. A superman prime minister in a democratic polity is an oddity, militating against the cabinet form of government. A prime minister as a first among equals enriches the quality of governance; a one-man cabinet makes it vulnerable to the whims and quirks of a strong leader. In a way, the less than satisfactory outcome for the BJP will prevent it from riding roughshod over internal dissent and external Opposition whose voice must be heard and not always squashed. Of course, the Opposition too must shed its visceral hatred of Modi and judge the functioning of government on merit rather than in a hostile confrontationist mode. Hopefully, the newly energized Rahul Gandh can behave as a responsible opposition leader not always robotically opposing all that the government does. The Congress may have nearly doubled its tally but it must always bear in mind that it is far from being the old party of governance.
Diversity and vastness of the country favours a multi-party government at the federal level. Nehru and Indira Gandhi benefited from the aura of the freedom movement while Rajiv Gandhi gained from the emotional upsurge following the murder of his mother to win over 400-plus seats. Since then, only Modi, post-Balakot, has won a clear majority on his own. Otherwise, coalitions at the federal level seem to be the default position of Indian democracy. Given that BJP ally Chandrababu Naidu will concentrate on Andhra Pradesh, he can be relied upon to extract concessions for his State, especially the revival of the Amaravati capital project unwisely killed by the outgoing Jagan Mohan Reddy government. Another key ally Nitish Kumar will be content to restore a semblance of governance in Bihar with the support of the Centre while smaller allies, Chirag Paswan and Jayant Choudhry, will try and remain on good conduct for their own sakes. In other words, while Modi has thrived as a majority party leader, be it for three terms as Gujarat chief minister and twice as prime minister, a little accommodation dictated by his reduced numbers will smoothen the way in his third stint as prime minister.
It is unlikely that there will be a major policy shift both in the economic and social sphere. Given the latest robust growth numbers and the ambitious agenda to become the third largest economy in the next couple of years, continuity of the policy regime ought to be guaranteed. Immediately after firming up his majority he needs to affirm that there would be no backsliding on economic expansion and ‘vikas’, and reassure domestic and global investors that growth will remain the focus of NDA-3.0. Getting trapped in the Congress rhetoric of caste census and breach of fifty percent ceiling on reservations will be a mistake as it would divert the attention from the more urgent task of economic growth. Indeed, any postmortem of its less-than-satisfactory numbers ought not lead the ruling party to move the clock back on economic and social reforms. Whether the Agniveer scheme or the rumor over the abrogation of the Constitution and caste-based reservations and, of course, the consolidation of the 20-percent Muslim vote against it led to the BJP’s losses in the Hindi heartland needs to be examined threadbare. But BJP must not under pressure abandon progressive ideas while being always ready to tweak them to rid of any shortcomings. Modi cannot be seen as a prime minister with his one hand tied behind his back. Otherwise, his cause would be better served allowing the INDI bloc to wield power -- only for them to fight like Kilkenny cats and pave the way for a Modi-led BJP with a 272-plus majority. BJP’s cause is better served sitting out rather than heading a government which is a prisoner of multiple opportunistic elements a la Manmohan Singh in UPA –I and II. Meanwhile, we trust everyone reading this comment will turn to the news pages of FPJ for an informed dissection of Mandate 2024. The triumphant return of TDP in Andhra Pradesh and the surprise eclipse of the one-man Biju Janata Dal in Odisha are no less significant. So is the decimation of AAP in Delhi and Punjab. Peoples’ will as expressed through the ballot box needs to be respected. We feel that the rap on the BJP wrist was called for. It should make it less arrogant, less cocky. And more consensual and accommodative to non-BJP opinion.
