How true it is that the Indian voter cannot be taken for granted. Once inside the polling booth, they have nothing to fear and can choose any candidate — or even no candidate. Almost every exit poll predicted that Congress would return to power with a solid majority in Haryana. Pre-poll reports also suggested the ruling BJP was in for a severe beating. This inflated the egos of Congress leaders, who assumed Haryana was like a ripe mango that would fall effortlessly into their basket. This overconfidence led some Congress leaders to claim they would win by an unprecedented margin. In retrospect, this only revealed how disconnected they were from the ground reality.
Ultimately, this overconfidence is what did the grand old party in. The over-reliance on former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda to win the state was a tactical error. Of the 90 candidates, nearly 70 were his personal picks, which naturally antagonised other groups. True, the Jats are influential in terms of both money and muscle, and the Congress — especially Hooda — believed it could win by appeasing them. Little did they know that the BJP had conveniently consolidated non-Jat voters under its banner, upsetting Congress’s plans. The presence of parties like the Indian National Lok Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party in the fray hurt the Congress more than the BJP.
Ten years ago, when the BJP came to power in Haryana on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal, he appointed Manohar Lal Khattar, virtually an unknown political entity, as chief minister. Khattar was not well-known outside the RSS, where he had been a full-time worker. Politically, he turned out to be a liability, as shown by the BJP’s failure to win a majority on its own in 2019. The party smartly replaced Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, a tactically strong move that paid dividends. While farmers’ anger and the common man’s disillusionment with the Centre’s treatment of protesting women wrestlers were real, they weren’t strong enough to dislodge the BJP — especially when the alternative was Hooda and Co., who faced corruption charges from their time in power a decade ago.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the results went almost as predicted. The BJP retained its hold on Jammu while surrendering the Valley. The party’s claim that it had transformed the state failed to convince the masses, many of whom couldn’t use their mobile phones for long periods. The abrogation of Article 370 might have found supporters across the country, but in Kashmir, it was seen as an abrogation of the Centre’s trust in the people. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, credited with splitting the state into two Union Territories, found favour only with the BJP cadres. The decision wasn’t even mentioned in any election manifestoes. It’s no surprise that the party faced a rout in the Valley, and its strategy of splitting anti-BJP votes also didn’t work.
The results suggest that the National Conference-Congress alliance will form the government. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which culminated in Srinagar, helped reconnect the Congress with Kashmiris, but the victory is clearly the National Conference’s. The Congress didn’t make much headway in Jammu either — it was more of a piggyback ride for them. The People’s Democratic Party was routed, largely due to its past willingness to ally with the BJP, which had always demanded the abrogation of Article 370. The success of the NC, especially Omar Abdullah, shows that in politics, no leader is out of bounds if they are ready to amend their ways, take up public issues, and regain popular support. Abdullah now faces the challenge of providing stable governance while likely being needled by the Central government.
While the people of Haryana can expect stable governance for the next five years, Abdullah’s challenges are manifold. Without the shield of Article 370, he must combat the perception that J&K is governed by an LG and advisers from outside the state. He needs to erase that image while continuing the progress that the Centre had set in motion. He also must remain vigilant against extremists with extraterritorial loyalties, who have been lying dormant under the Centre’s strict security measures. Only then will these results benefit the people.
