Abhi na jaao chhodkar, ke dil abhi bhara nahin /Abhi abhi toh aayi ho, bahaar bann ke chhaayi ho… (Please don’t leave yet, my heart isn’t satiated yet; You have only just arrived, your presence is like the blossoming of Spring)
I can well imagine G20 hosts playing the Hum Dono number to cajole world leaders like Joe Biden, Rishi Sunak, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Fumio Kishida and Mohammad bin Salman into spending some more time with Prime Minister Narendra Modi instead of heading home immediately after the Summit. Modi likes to hang out with the big boys. And he can be very clingy too, if his televised hugs and embraces are anything to go by.
Little wonder then that Modi — not done yet — extended departing world leaders an invitation to another summit, albeit virtual, he now wants to host in November before passing the G20 baton to Brazil. Our honourable PM simply doesn’t want to accept that all good things must come to an end!
There is no doubt that the Delhi Declaration is very good for India. It serves our national interests like few other international documents. In that sense, it’s a great achievement. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his team did a good job convincing America and key European powers like the United Kingdom, France and Germany to say ‘yes’ to a draft which did not criticise Russia for invading Ukraine. It was a major climbdown from the G20’s Bali Declaration last year under Indonesian presidency which had openly deplored and called out Russia as the aggressor.
While Ukraine is devastated by the Delhi Declaration for letting Russia off the hook, Russia is publicly thanking New Delhi for doing it a big favour. India is the net gainer as the Delhi Declaration is in sync with our own key foreign policy goal of being in Moscow’s good books at any cost. And the reason too is obvious. Everyone knows that if there is one world leader who can actually restrain China’s President Xi Jinping from pursuing expansionist and aggressive policies against us, it is Vladimir Putin. Russia is the protective shield against China that India can’t do without. We know that if push comes to shove, as it well might considering China’s refusal to withdraw from our territory, Putin will stand by us.
The US-led West bought New Delhi’s line and agreed to a pro-Russia declaration at Ukraine’s cost because India is such a huge market for its technological exports, including fighter jets and civilian aircrafts. Hence they wanted to keep India on their right side so that we keep filling their coffers. Moreover, New Delhi would have suffered a big loss of face if America and Europe had blocked a Joint Statement. And that would have weakened India’s position globally vis-à-vis China — something that America and Europe certainly did not want because of their own opposition to China and their policy of using India to contain China. In the bargain, India successfully obliged its all-weather ally, Russia. And that’s a huge plus for New Delhi.
So far so good. Funnily, India is trying to take credit for the inclusion of the African Union in G20 as an example of our outreach to developing countries. But that’s a bit rich coming from India which, if the truth be told, is itself a developing country with poor socio-economic metrics. In GDP per capita, India is at the bottom among G20 members. Which means that Indians are the poorest among the nationals of G20 countries. On the Human Development Index too, measured by life expectancy, access to education and standard of living, India is ranked last. And in Labour Force Participation Rate India is ranked 19th. Our position in the Global Hunger Index, not to speak of the Press Freedom Index, is embarrassing. None of these indicators bode well for any multilateral leadership role.
As things stand, India doesn’t have the wherewithal to make even its limited G20 success last. Our economy is faltering and there are no signs of things getting better on that crucial front. Professor Ashok Mody’s remarks about slowing growth, rising inequalities and job scarcity are a serious indictment. China’s President Xi Jinping decided to give the weekend G20 Summit a miss and did not even bother to inform us that he was not coming. The Chinese leader’s discourtesy prompted Happymon Jacob, a strategic analyst in New Delhi, to say: “This is an 18 trillion dollar economy snubbing a 3.75 trillion dollar economy. This is a rising superpower trying to show India its place.” And I totally agree with Jacob.
There are also serious doubts about the sustainability of India’s so called multi-alignment which New Delhi attributes its success to in hammering out the Delhi Declaration in such a polarised world. After the G20 success by hedging its bets, India is projecting itself as an alternative to the US and China that the Global South, for instance, can turn to. Only time will tell whether deal-making through mediation can cement a leadership position in the international order for a country like India beset by some of the toughest economic challenges.
But one thing is certain. Modi and the BJP will capitalise on India’s brief moment in the diplomatic sun to brainwash gullible citizens into believing that India has imbued a new image internationally as a powerful nation. Elections are due in four major states this year ahead of Parliamentary polls in April-May. And Modi, as we know him, is all set to milk India’s limited G20 success to get reelected as PM for a third straight term.
SNM Abdi is an independent, Pegasused reporter and commentator on foreign policy and domestic politics
