November brings two crucial elections with consequences, at home and abroad. The result of the November 5 US presidential election will have local and global significance. Former president Donald Trump’s political polarisation of the US has degenerated to the point where he is directly threatening his political opponents and critics, even with the use of the US military. By comparison, during the 2016 election his repetitive chants of “jail her”, to target his opponent Hillary Clinton, were more ill-mannered rhetoric than a serious punitive threat. He left her alone after his win.
However his electoral loss in the 2020 election and incitement of a mob on January 6, 2021 to invade the Capitol Hill, spells the danger he now presents to US democracy. His continuing refusal to accept defeat undermines a basic democratic principle i.e. orderly transfer of power. The current presidential election has many unprecedented elements. An incumbent president’s withdrawal and replacement by the vice president just four months before the poll is sui generis. In fact former president Donald Trump kept bemoaning the substitution as if he expected some referee to blow the whistle.
High polarisation over the past many decades has reduced the US presidential election to really a race in six or seven “swing states” like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Interestingly, Republicans launched election challenges in 2020-21 in some of these states. Arizona, bordering Mexico, brings into play two key themes: the Republican charge of Democrats mishandling immigration; and the Democrats alleging the denial of reproductive rights to women. Michigan puts Democrats on the defensive over inability or unwillingness to control Israel’s military action in Gaza, and now Lebanon, causing destruction and mayhem due to the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas. Michigan has the country’s largest population of Arab-Americans. Vice President K Harris has tried to distance herself from President Biden’s indulgence of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. However, her tacit acceptance of Biden’s policy since October 7, when Hamas attacked Israel, makes complete detachment difficult without appearing opportunistic.
However, VP Harris’ massive funds collection and a disciplined campaign enabled quick catchup with Trump. Trump’s indisciplined messaging and predilection for crude political jibes and half-truths kept him from capitalising the anti-incumbency of the Biden presidency. Just as the contest was evenly poised, Trump’s New York Rally at the Madison Square Garden, in a solidly pro-Democrat state, produced multiple blunders. A stand-up comedian called Puerto Rico a floating garbage dump. With more than 472,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania the faux pas may help Harris bag that crucial state.
However, unlike Biden in 2020, Harris finds going tough in Georgia. In neighbouring North Carolina, which Trump won, matters look better for Democrats.
All told, with billionaires like Elon Musk forcefully supporting Trump the battle is not just racially polarised but economically too. If Trump wants to impale his critics and political foes, even Musk and other pro-Trump billionaires may face greater scrutiny if Trump loses.
In his Indian diaspora outreach, Trump promised to “protect Hindu Americans against the anti-religion agenda of the radical left”. He added he would “strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi”. He was endorsing the Hindutva-based polarisation, which the Indian diaspora has undergone in the last decade. The Biden administration on the other hand, alongside Canada, is investigating an alleged Indian government-sponsored conspiracy to target US and Canadian citizens of Sikh faith.
Later in November another crucial election is scheduled to decide who rules Maharashtra. The constitutional distortions created by the governments in Mumbai and Delhi and judicial inaction have left a vital state in limbo. The electoral outcome has national significance as a loss in Maharashtra will put the NDA government on the defensive right before the Bihar election.
A win by the ruling dispensation in Maharashtra should steady the ruling NDA alliance nationally. BJP’s confident posturing since May, hardly justified by their Lok Sabha performance, can get a boost from a win in India’s financial capital. A loss can trigger doubts amongst BJP’s allies.
Internationally, a Trump win should shift the US focus from the Pannun-Nijjar issue. As a transactional creature, he is likely to seek financial and commercial advantages. Vice President Kamala Harris instead may be more focused on protecting human rights and democratic principles. Joe Biden entered the White House promising to advance them but residual COVID-caused distractions and two wars upended his agenda. Ms Harris may resume that task with vigour. Her initial focus would be to control Israeli PM Netanyahu and enforce a West Asian ceasefire. Similarly she would signal to Russian president V Putin the US commitment to help Ukraine sustain its fightback until ceasefire and talks are mutually acceptable. A Trump presidency may produce a more idiosyncratic approach to these issues, with indeterminate outcomes.
Thus electoral results in the next four weeks can have historic consequences. Rarely have two elections had such significance for India at home and the world at large.
KC Singh is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs
