No party in Haryana has formed three consecutive governments and no party has ever won a majority in two consecutive elections. This is the evidence of a culture of anti-incumbency in Haryana and the Bharatiya Janata Party is facing this hydra-headed monster up close in 2024. The highly-organised party has realised that it is on the backfoot in the state, it cannot rely on the conventional “Modi magic”; neither do the party's regional leaders carry the charisma to save the party. The tried-and-tested hate politics seem to have failed, social engineering hasn't worked to that extent despite the party having replaced Manohar Lal Khattar with an OBC Nayab Singh Saini. Initially BJP projected him as the CM face but as the election is just two days away the party is making last-ditch attempts to change strategies out of desperation and frustration.
Who is the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate in the October 5 Haryana Legislative Assembly election? That question has emerged as an intriguing sub-plot. The BJP has officially declared the incumbent chief minister Nayab Singh Saini as its candidate for the post. However, during the campaign, at least two other BJP leaders in the state, former Haryana Home Minister Anil Vij and Union minister Rao Inderjit Singh, have publicly staked their claim to the post too. This is unusual for the BJP, a party known for its discipline and absence of questioning of the official party line by members, at least in public. Since the BJP is on a weak footing in the state and looks unlikely to retain power, it seems to have strategically calculated that multiple leaders projecting themselves as potential chief ministers is likely to enthuse their supporters and help the party electorally. The BJP has no option but to tolerate, if not encourage, such public claims against the party.
Another reason, many on the ground say, could be Saini’s perception within the state of being a lame-duck chief minister.
Earlier this month, Vij, a six-time MLA from the Ambala Cantonment constituency and one of the most senior BJP leaders in Haryana, said that he would stake claim for the chief minister’s post if the party returns to power. He had added that it was up to the party high command to make him chief minister and that, if he were to helm the government, he would “change the picture of Haryana”. Apart from Vij, six-time MP Rao Inderjeet Singh claimed while campaigning for the party that the people of Haryana want him to become the chief minister. He said that the BJP’s former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar would not have come to power in 2014 or 2019 without the support of southern Haryana, where he holds sway.
Among the 11 assembly constituencies in the districts of Gurugram, Mahendragarh and Rewari in this region, after being unable to secure victory in any of the seats in 2009, the BJP won all 11 in 2014 and eight in 2019. JP Dalal who is the current finance minister of Haryana is also perceived to be in the list of claimants for the CM post. Dalal's name was pushed by Amit Shah himself – not directly and in clear terms, but the Union Home Minister did hint at the fact that vote for Dalal and he would be made a “bada aadmi” (big man).
The party's central leadership has not cautioned any of these claimants for the CM post despite State election incharge Dharmendra Pradhan and Amit Shah reaffirming Nayab Singh Saini as the party's chief ministerial candidate. BJP insiders say this is not indiscipline within the party but a deliberate strategy to enthuse the voters and also ward off anti-incumbency sentiment. Surveys done ahead of October 5 have given an edge to the Congress and the BJP seems to be on the back foot due to anti-incumbency, dissent within the party because of ticket distribution, and lack of a helping hand from the RSS which is adamant, as during the Lok Sabha elections, not to help the BJP. Will this strategy work to help the BJP secure a respectable position as Opposition in the state or will the party be wiped off as many say this also could be a possibility? In the wake of this, whatever BJP is trying to improvise as a flexible strategy seeing the evolving political situation, the party is grasping at straws. Mulitiple CM faces might help it garner a few votes more from different regions.
Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and digital content creator. Twitter: @neeluopines
