BJP’s southward journey has been checkmated by people of Karnataka who rejected an excessive dose of Hindutva(Jai Bajrang Bali and Anti Muslims stance) injected by saffron party and gave preference to the local issues thereby paving the way for landslide victory of Congress which may act as ‘Sanjiveeni’ to grand Old party to face Modi’s BJP in 2024 parliamentary elections which will be devoid of a big driving national issue like Pulwama .
Analysts opine that a ‘Big Take Away’ for BJP is that the outcome of Karnataka polls has established that BJP chief ministers will have to perform otherwise voters will punish the party and it can no longer solely depend on the ‘Charisma’ of the prime minister, Narendra Modi and management skill of union home minister, Amit Shah.
Challenges for Congress which may create a narrative about brand Rahul for 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Experts are of confirmed opinion that none can snatch credit of Congress victory in Karnataka but it will be an uphill task to defeat Modi led BJP in 2024 i.e. “DILLI ABHI DUR HAI AUR ISKO FATEH KARNA ASAAN NAHAIN HAI”( Delhi is far away and it is not easy to conquer it).
At the same time, Congress may implement Karnataka Model of Pro people guarantees in manifestos of states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Mizoram which go to polls this year.
Second, party cadres and leaders contribute a lot in the success of any party and Karnataka’s historical win can act as a Morale Booster besides creating a demoralizing effect on BJP. Like BJP, it is also a fact that Congress led governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will also face Anti-Incumbency factor besides BJP’s strong foothold in Hindi belt hence new strategy may be required to overcome this hurdle.
Third, Rahul brand of precedence of ‘Love over Hatred’ a main ingredient of ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ is likely to become part of election campaign in 2024 and state assemblies which is evident from the praise being showered on him by senior party leaders. Rahul had ensured that an impression of unity is reflected amongst state leaders during Yatra which will become a focal point in other states also. Rahul had focused on local issues like unemployment, price rise, atrocities and welfare of the women, BJP’s constant efforts to put these issues under carpet etc. which formed the core elements of the manifesto. Karnataka victory will brighten the chance of Congress to negotiate from the position of strength which had been missing owing to regular losses in states and central elections.
Fourth, Kharge factor did play its role in shifting the Dalit votes to Congress which is bound to become part and parcel of electoral arena in five states with enlightened vigor .BJP’s over dependence on Modi’s Charisma did not work in earlier Himachal and now in Karnataka also which makes regional straps(chief ministers or state leaders)relevant and key to success. Congress may take advantage of Kharge factor to garner the support of Dalits in assemblies’ polls.
Fifth, Modi brand was built on key element of anti-corruption which was lost in din in Karnataka polls as Bomai government was accused of a large scale corruption and nicknamed as “government of 40% commission” (CHALIS PARTISHAT COMMISSION KI SARKAR).In this way, BJP leaders refrained from talking about corruption hence Congress pounced upon this issue and even printed a list of rates of postings of officials which ran in crores.
Chances of Opposition unity improves
Observers feel that Congress needs to adopt a flexible attitude and efforts initiated by Bihar chief minister, Nitish Kumar which may be accelerated with the addition of senior leader like Sharad Pawar who has been able to save his party from BJP in Maharashtra after a dramatic offer of retirement from politics. Now there are chances that PM aspirants like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal etc. may fall in line and refrain from attacking Congress though BJP happens to be the common enemy on political front.
Hindutava has been rejected by people of Karnataka
BJP may bank upon the contention that Modi has got ‘Charisma’ to save sinking ship of any party chief minister who has been totally failure to come to the expectations of the people but it has been proved as a misnomer in Himachal and Karnataka. BJP had jumped over the issue of intermixing and blatantly misinterpreting the Congress party’s resolve to ban Bajrang dal and PFI if it came to power. The mood was upbeat as BJP started believing that Bajrang Bali will bail out the non performing Bomai government and people’s problems as well as frustration will be forgotten but in vain. Even PM’s speeches veered around the Hindutva as he accused Congress of showing disrespect to Bajrang Bali (Hanuman)whose worship may be banned.
Now Congress workers in Karnataka are saying “Bajrangbali BJP ke nahi Congress ke sath hain… Bajrang Bali ne BJP par fine lagaya hai (Lord Bajrangbali is with the Congress and he has levied a fine on the BJP. )The issue was related to faith hence the deity had figured in speeches, rallies, roadshows and more. People of Karnataka worship Bajran Bali as Anjanadri Hills in this state is considered the birthplace of Lord Hanuman.
Mutts played a huge role in the debacle of BJP
Irked by humiliation inflicted on former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa which preceded his unceremonious removal from the post of CM, Lingayat community shifted the loyalty which is reflected in the BJP’s loss of 27 assembly seats and subsequent gain of 28 seats by Congress .As per data, Lingayats constitute 17 percent hence it makes them a dominating bloc which should be an eye opener to RSS and saffron party. Thousands of Mutts of different communities, especially 1100 belonging to Lingayat community, acted as ‘Spoliator’ and affected the outcome of the elections in a most dramatic manner which can be attributed to sidelining of former chief minister, B.S. Yeddyurappa by Bhartiya Janata Party who was not declared as chief ministerial candidate hence he reportedly campaigned half heatedly.
Due to fear of losing Lingayat votes, BJP leaders and prime minister, Narender Modi had tried to assuage the hurt feelings of Yeddyurappa who was described as main star campaigner but refrained from declaring him as CM candidate which could have proved as game Changer in Karnataka polls. While encouraging younger leadership BJP had sidelined Yeddyurappa removed his from the post of chief minister in 2018 which has backfired. According to data, Karnataka had got approximately 5350 Lingayat Mutts at the time of independence but 4000 of these religious institutions have been closed due to financial constraints but one thousand one hundred still function in the state .But Yeddyurappa had done a lot to these Mutts when he was chief minister hence he has got a lot of influence over them. Experts say that there might have been silent dictate from chiefs of these Mutts which changed dynamics of the politics.. Mutts are not only religious bodies but they run educational institutions and provide free food to all sections of the society which made them relevant to political scenario but BJP failed to reap the fruit like in the past. Experts say that BJP’s decision to deny tickets to Jagadish Shettar deputy CM Laxman Savadi may cost it heavily as they have left the party and joined Congress.
BJP tried to retain Karnataka through social engineering
In the hope of creating pro Hindu sentiments, BJP-Bomai government scrapped 4% Muslims quota which was moved to 10 % weaker section (EWS) category and they were left to compete with Brahmins, Mudaliyars, Jains, Vysyas and others . Analysis say that the Bomai government had raised the quota for SCs from 15 % to 17 %and STs from 5 percent to 7 percent in October,2022 to improve its chances on the basis of the social engineering formula but it did not work. Then, another attempt was made when it withdrew the 4 % Muslim quota and it would be shared between the powerful Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities which until now enjoyed five percent and four percent sub quotas respectively within the OBC segment. But such tactics also backfired as it helped in polrisation of Muslims who enmasse voted for Congress candidates.
Rural and urban divide took the toll of BJP
As usual ,BJP faired well in urban areas but Congress prevailed in villages which can be attributed to freebies like 10 Kg free rice ,200 units of free power, Rs 3000 per month for every unemployed degree holder, Rs two thousand to every female head of family, Rs 1500 for diploma holder etc. Such lucrative promises overran BJP’s resources, skill of electoral management, RSS influence etc. in rural Karnataka.
Congress released five key pre-poll guarantees: 200 units of free power, Rs 2,000 for the female head of a family, 10kg of rice free to every member of a BPL household, Rs 3,000/month for unemployed degree holders and Rs 1,500/ month for diploma holders for two years, and free bus rides for women. It has promised to implement these in its very first cabinet meeting
How did Lingayat move away from Congress?
It is the Yediyurappa phenomenon which brought sea change in the entire caste structure in Karnataka and it benefited BJP in a big way. Rajeev Gandhi’s humiliating and ruthless action of dismissal of Veerendra Patil government proved a disaster for Congress which was reduced to 36 seats from 179 seats in 1994 as the Lingatyat community moved away from the party. BJP increased its vote percentage from 4% to 16 % which was primarily due to Lingayat community. Yediyurappa had formed his own party Karnataka Janata Party(KJP) and damaged BJP in several constituencies in 2013 as vote got split which enabled BJP to win 40 seats as compared to 110 in 2008 .BJP share dipped to 33.86 % to 19.95 % and Yeddyurappa’s party corned 9.8%.Now BJP might value the importance of Yediyurappa who may become relevant for next five years as shifting of Lingayat votes to Congress has bitterly hurt the saffron party in Karnataka polls.
In the final assessment, BJP’s habit of contesting every election with ferocity and killing spirt can not be underestimated though Congress can position itself for ensuing assembly and 2024 elections with renewed energy and enthusiasm .BJP had won104 seats in 2108 with 35.43 % of vote share which has dropped to 36.22 % whereas Congress party’s vote share was 38.61 but won 78 seats only. Now vote share of Congress has gone upto 42.94%,a surge of 4.33 % and enabled it to win 136 seats which will have some bearing on the outcome of 2024 polls in this state.
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)kstomar7@gmail.com
.jpg)
