The Supreme Court, commendably, has acted as the savior of secularism and citizens’ fundamental rights, as demonstrated by its interim order against Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s controversial directive. This order mandated the display of owners' nameplates on shops, restaurants, and dhabas during the Kanwar Yatra, a move that faced severe criticism from the opposition and even NDA ally Rashtriya Lok Dal. Apex order applies to Uttarakhand also which had followed the suit and issued an identical order.
Political analysts noted that Yogi, having become Chief Minister for the second time, had never previously issued such an illogical directive. This decision appears to be part of a larger strategy to project himself as a more significant Hindu leader, potentially linked to Delhi-based leaders' efforts to change the state's leadership. Dissent from Deputy Chief Minister Maurya and state government allies has fueled suspicions of a conspiracy to side-line Yogi, especially after the poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls. Some Muslim leaders have even described the directive as an economic boycott against the minority community.
Challenges Ahead For UP CM
Adityanath faces a survival challenge, being blamed for the poor showing in the Lok Sabha despite it being a "Modi Guarantee" put to the test in these elections. To assert his position, he has embarked on a new Hindutva project to prove himself a bigger Hindu leader than anyone in Delhi. This is reflected in his government's directive to display owners' names on shops and dhabas during the month-long Kanwar Yatra, from July 22 to August 4, 2024. NDA ally RLD leader Jayant Chaudhry has expressed his displeasure with Yogi’s order, advocating for a balanced approach. He sarcastically commented, “What name should they write on McDonald’s and Burger King outlets? Will you also expect the shopkeepers to write their names on their shirts so that it becomes easy for you (the kanwariyas) to shake hands with them or decide whether to hug them?”
In contrast, Yogi has justified his directive, stating that it aims to maintain law and order and ensure transparency during the Kanwar Yatra, a significant religious pilgrimage for Lord Shiva devotees, which involves large gatherings and processions.
The open dissent within the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, often considered the "gateway to power in Delhi," indicates a potential erosion of the Modi-Shah duo's authority and dominance. This situation could serve two purposes: first, it may signal a possible leadership change, as Deputy CM's differing opinions and state government allies' dissent might have tactical support from Delhi, which will become clearer in the coming days. Second, an internal 15-page report, after consulting over 40,000 people by a task force of 40 state BJP leaders, could aim to address the losses in the Lok Sabha polls in UP and suggest corrective measures.
Experts highlight that Adityanath is not akin to former Haryana CM Khattar or the three ex-CMs of Uttarakhand who were abruptly changed and did not challenge the high command's decisions. Adityanath’s backing from the RSS, coupled with his ambition to become a contender for the number two position in the BJP hierarchy, differentiates his case from others who accepted the high command's decisions without protest.
The INDI alliance has criticized Yogi, noting that he had never taken such measures in the past, suggesting a more significant political maneuver. Yogi has emerged as a Rajput leader in UP and nationally, making him a sought-after figure during elections in different states due to his Hindutva icon status.
In response to the recent Lok Sabha election results and his perceived lack of control over government employees, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath swiftly transferred over a dozen District Magistrates. This action followed a task force report by 40 BJP UP members, which cited party infighting, caste dynamics, and non-cooperation from government employees as key reasons for the party's poor performance in the state. The BJP's vote share in Uttar Pradesh decreased by approximately 10 percentage points compared to the 2019 elections, from around 49.6% to approximately 39.6%. Although the BJP secured all Lok Sabha seats around Gorakhpur, Adityanath’s stronghold, it suffered losses in constituencies around Varanasi, the PM’s constituency.
Notably, the task force skipped visits to Varanasi and Lucknow. A visit to Varanasi might have revealed local dissatisfaction over major project contracts awarded to contractors from western India instead of local UP contractors. This oversight highlights internal divisions, further evidenced by Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya’s extended stay in Delhi for nearly a month after the election results were announced.
A deeper examination into the roots of the BJP’s defeat in UP suggests that issues began much earlier. The central election committee meeting on February 29, where names for 50 of the 80 UP seats were decided, is a critical point of focus. During this meeting, CM Adityanath and other members waited for over two hours while Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and J P Nadda had an informal discussion at Lok Kalyan Marg, finalizing a shortlist of 50 candidates. When the official meeting commenced, general secretary (organization) B L Santhosh read out the names with minimal objections. The consensus was to defer to the party's judgment, and the UP names were approved in about 20 minutes, with 65% being sitting MPs due to confidence in UP's 'double engine ki sarkar.' Adityanath’s recommendation to replace 35 sitting MPs was overlooked, and ultimately, 27 BJP incumbents lost their seats.
This decline is attributed to several factors, including: Local Issues: Specific regional issues and the performance of local BJP leaders influenced voter sentiment. Campaign Strategies: Changes in campaign strategies and the effectiveness of messaging played a role.Anti-Incumbency: After being in power for several years, voter fatigue and dissatisfaction contributed to the decrease.Opposition Alliances: Stronger alliances among opposition parties, such as the SP and BSP, consolidated the anti-BJP votes.
Analysts opine that an unexpected shift in BJP’s stance in Uttar Pradesh has significant implications for the political landscape which could influence future strategies for the BJP and its opponents.
(Writer is political analyst and senior journalist based in Shimla)
