As per belief of every individual born on the earth has got unflinching faith in pre-destined events in life and career barring some atheists which was the core theme of the English novelist and poet, Thomas Hardy’s novels like Tess of d’Urbervilles and Jude the Obscure in the mid –to late-19th century. The current national president, J.P.Nadda is a perfect example of fate, destiny and chance though his ascendency can also be attributed to the blessings of RSS top brass, Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and home minister, Amit Shah. Nadda had been personally aspiring for chief ministership of Himachal after the unexpected defeat of two time chief minister, Prof Prem Kumar Dhumal in 2017 assembly election. BJP high command had declared Prof Dhumal as CM candidate and the party won the polls but luck smiled on low lying leader, Jai Ram Thakur who is also known as “accidental CM”.
The phrase "history never repeats itself but it rhymes" is often attributed to Mark Twain, an American writer, humourist, and essayist though the exact origin is uncertain. It means that while historical events may not recur in exactly the same way, there are often similar patterns, themes, and dynamics that can be observed across different eras. It may hold true to former information and broadcasting minister and an aggressive senior leader, Anurag Thakur, MP, from Hamirpur in Himachal who did not find the place in new cabinet of PM Modi but he is being considered as one of the strong contenders for the post of new BJP president after the expiry of extended term of Nadda in January, 2025.
If it happens then it will be a repeat of Nadda’s elevation to top position in the organization who lost the race for CM post and waited for two years to get top slot in the party. In the meantime, he was assigned the very important task of strategizing Uttar Pradesh 2019 Lok Sabha polls under the guidance of Amit Shah who was national president. Nadda delivered as BJP won 62 out of 80 seats and Shah was inducted as union home minister in place of Rajnath Singh who got defence portfolio. At this juncture Nadda could not dream of succeeding Shah but the duo comprising PM-Shah had different plan hence he achieved something unimaginable of heading the biggest organization in the world.
In this backdrop, political observers find some possible similarities between Nadda and Anurag who hail from the same state, Himachal Pradesh. Now the echelon of power in Delhi is laced with a logical and topical debate whether luck will smile on Anurag like Nadda and possibility is not being ruled out as he has got essential ingredients of merit, experience and loyalty to ensure ascendancy to the top slot. Experts are citing several factors which favour the elevation of Anurag though none can predict the mind-set of PM and home minister who always keep their secret plan to the chest which holds true even to cabinet inductions or replacing CMs overnight since 2014 onwards.
First, Anurag left his mark when he successfully handled the youth affairs and sports as well as information and broadcasting minister during two terms of Modi.
Second, he enjoys the confidence of Mod and Shah which is mandatory to get responsibility either in the government or party set up.
Third, Thakur has always come up to the expectations of RSS which can be attributed to his hard stance of Hindutva.
Fourth, as a fiery orator who is addicted to facts and figures while speaking in parliament, Anurag is 2nd to none which has earned the silent appreciation of the PM who is very conservative in expressing his views about anyone.
Fifth, Himachal has Nadda as cabinet minister hence chances of inducting another minister from a small state seems to be remote which puts him in the category of aspirant for any responsible and senior position.
Sixth, The Powerful Indians List 2022 drawn by an English national paper had placed him at 36th spot which was based on the premise that power is not just about political clout or corporate heft. It is also about the ability to influence public opinion, define discourse and set the agenda across domains hence the list is compiled based on this evidence.
Finally, Anurag has got complete hostility towards Gandhi’s and none can beat him in this arena which makes him dearest to Modi and Shah who have got personal contempt for the family which is visible in and outside parliament.
Anurag’s hard hitting rebuttal of LOP,Rahul Gandhi in Lok Sabha about caste census was endorsed by Modi who wrote on X(formerly Twitter) “this speech by my young and energetic colleague, Shri@ianuragthakur is a must hear. A perfect mix of facts and humour, exposing the dirty politics of INDI Alliance. ”Critics say that make no mistake about Modi’s psyche who is allergic to any type of lobbying or coverage in media as he makes up his mind himself though, at times, Shah does matter by every yardstick.
In this complex scenario, there are four senior leaders who have also emerged as potential contenders for national president’s post which include B.L. Santosh, Om Mathur, Vinod Tawde and Sunil Bansal. Their entitlement is based on the scrutiny of ideology, experience and links with RSS, Modi and Shah.
Om Mathur; Managerial Skills: Mathur's background in the RSS has endowed him with strong organizational skills, crucial for managing the party.
Political Strategy: He is recognized for his strategic approach, particularly in northern India, where he has played a vital role in BJP's growth.
Team Building: Known for his ability to build and maintain cohesive teams, Mathur has been instrumental in strengthening party structures.
Ideological Commitment: His deep-rooted commitment to the party's ideology aligns him closely with the core values of the BJP. B.L. Santhosh, the BJP's National General Secretary (Organisation) and a key RSS figure, is considered a strong contender for the national president role due to his deep RSS roots, closeness to Nadda, organizational expertise, an influencer in important decisions taken by the party and influence within the party. However, his ascent may face resistance from regional power centres within the BJP.
Vinod Tawde; Administrative Experience: Tawde has held significant portfolios in Maharashtra, showcasing his administrative capabilities.
Educational Background: With a solid educational background, he is seen as a knowledgeable leader capable of intellectual leadership.
Inclusive Approach: Known for his inclusive style, Tawde has worked on building alliances across various social and political spectrums.
Strategic Thinking: He has been instrumental in strategizing for BJP in Maharashtra, contributing to its electoral successes.
Sunil Bansal; Election Management: Bansal is credited with BJP's significant electoral victories in Uttar Pradesh, underlining his expertise in election management.
Grassroots Connect: He has a strong connection with grassroots workers, enhancing the party's reach and mobilization efforts.
Youth Leadership: As a relatively younger leader, Bansal represents a new generation within the party, appealing to youth voters.
Strategic Planner: His ability to plan and execute large-scale political campaigns makes him a crucial asset for the party.
Political observers opine that BJP parliamentary board has not formally extended the term of Nadda but his continuation exhibits his relevance and rationale as he is loaded with vast experience of handling polls and preparations are afoot since past two years. Amidst the reports of BJP top leaders making efforts to bridge a gap between organization and RSS, the hunt for a new incumbent has started and the final decision may have the stamp of RSS top brass.
(Writer is political analyst and strategic affairs columnist based in Shimla)
