The Bharatiya Janata Party is supremely confident of notching up as many as 370 Lok Sabha seats out of 543 in the coming general elections, giving the ruling party a commanding two-thirds majority in Parliament to do virtually what it likes. Then why is the BJP still poaching every single Opposition leader belonging to the Congress party and I.N.D.I.A bloc that it can intimidate or seduce into crossing over?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are, in fact, declaring every other day that not only will the BJP win 370 seats singlehandedly but the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s tally will cross 400! In contrast, the Opposition is in a right royal mess. It is plagued by desertions and disunity. It doesn’t have a prime ministerial candidate who can hold a candle to a personality like Modi. Undeniably, there is no one in the whole country who can match Modi’s mass appeal at this juncture, or in the foreseeable future. Even the dispirited Opposition seems to have conceded defeat and is mentally prepared for Modi inevitably occupying the PM’s chair for a third straight term.
But when the BJP is so sure-footed and the picture is so rosy, then why did the Modi-Shah-Mohan Bhagwat triumvirate roll out the red carpet for Adarsh cooperative society scam accused, Congress Party’s Ashok Chavan, and promptly send him to the Rajya Sabha? Why did the trio dangle a carrot before Kamal Nath when the Congress party refused him a ticket to the Upper House? And why has the BJP suddenly embraced Nitish Kumar despite Shah, no less, declaring not too long ago that the party had permanently closed its doors for the Janata Dal (United)’s chameleon?
Despite a tried-and-tested leader like Yogi Adityanath helming Uttar Pradesh, whose electoral and political significance needs no reiteration, the BJP has signed up Rashtriya Lok Dal leader Jayanta Chaudhary, and even conferred the Bharat Ratna posthumously on the I.N.D.I.A escapee’s grandfather, former PM Charan Singh. Similarly, it has co-opted Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde to split Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party and Udhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. And it is hardly a secret that the BJP is eyeing all unhappy and disenchanted souls in the Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Aam Aadmi Party ahead of elections.
So why are the BJP’s doors open for leaders from other parties? I can think of two reasons. Firstly, despite publicly claiming that the BJP will win 370 or 400 seats, in their heart of hearts Modi and Shah have grave doubts about the party’s poll prospects. Possibly, they know that the common man is burdened with too many economic problems; BJP leaders seem to fear that the masses might give vent to their frustration and disenchantment in the polling booths.
Secondly, the BJP is no longer interested in a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. It is determined to secure a two-thirds majority and has therefore set a target of 370 for the BJP and 400 for NDA. Without a two-thirds majority, the BJP can’t implement its pet projects like Uniform Civil Code and ‘One nation, One election’, annul the Places of Worship Act, 1991 to build temples in Varanasi and Mathura, and do away with minority educational institutions. Hence the BJP-NDA’s strategy of mopping up every seat up for grabs — even if it involves inducting non-BJP leaders like Chavan and striking deals with parties like the RLD.
The economic plight and daily suffering of ordinary Indians, especially the lower and the lower-middle class, seems to be haunting the BJP before the hustings. Besides its NDA constituents, the BJP is turning to all parties, ranging from the Congress to NCP, to achieve its two-thirds majority target. It has correctly calculated that every non-BJP leader who crosses over, and every party which deserts the I.N.D.I.A bloc and joins the NDA, will be electorally beneficial.
Recently, Modi toured his home state, Gujarat, and listed various government policies and schemes which have improved the lot of farmers and disadvantaged sections of society. Paradoxically, his visit coincided with a press conference convened by India Ratings and Research Private in Delhi, where it announced that economic growth in 2024-25 will slow down to 6.5% from a projected expansion of 7.3%. Its chief economist, Devendra Pant, highlighted weaknesses in consumption demand and pointed out that only the upper 50% of households were driving the demand. He said that inclusive economic growth is not possible in the absence of consumption demand of lower-income households. A power point presentation underlined a rise in the sale of four-wheelers and a decline in two-wheelers. Air travel is growing but rail travel is falling. The sale of flats costing under Rs 50 lakh is declining but there is a rise in the sale of flats priced between Rs 2-4 crore.
According to India Ratings, there was a 10% decline in employment in factories-offices in 2023 compared to 2022. The magnitude of joblessness currently is evident from 48 lakh applicants for 67,000 vacancies for police constables in Uttar Pradesh which came to light recently. The BJP knows that the rising discontent and frustration due to price rise and unemployment can’t be tackled by inaugurating a temple in Ayodhya dedicated to Lord Ram or promising to usher in “Ram rajya”. The projection of India as Vishwaguru too won’t cut any ice with voters longing for roti, kapda and makaan. Hence it is grabbing every single Opposition leader it can lay its hands on and courting I.N.D.I.A bloc parties in the hope of somehow increasing its tally of 303 seats in 2019 to 370 and the NDA’s from 353 to 400 in the coming elections.
The author is an independent, Pegasused reporter and commentator on foreign policy and domestic politics
