France Legislative Elections 2024: Will The French Drive Final Nail Into Emmanuel Macron's Coffin?

Paris: This Sunday, July 7, is voting day again for the French – round two of the crucial legislative elections. They will elect the 577 deputies of the National Assembly, the lower house of the French Parliament. On June 9 when the French President, Emmanuel Macron (46) with his wounded ego announced a dissolution of and fresh elections to the National Assembly owing to his allies’ shameful defeat to Marine Le Pen’s far right-wing party, Rassemblement National or the National Rally in the European elections, over 2.5 million proxy votes were established.

This number has gone up to 3.3 million between the first round of elections that was held on June 30 and the second round that will be held on July 7. Proxy voting is when you have the option of giving a proxy to a registered voter to vote on your behalf.

The National Rally’s (RN) victory in the first round of elections forecasts two scenarios; either the RN will secure an absolute majority, ie, with at least 289 of the 577 seats or le hemicycle de l’Assemblée Nationale will have no clear majority. Several questions arise on the eve of France’s final round of legislative elections and the very likely possibility of the establishment of a new government.

Can the far right National Rally achieve an absolute majority?

Just after the results of the first round, election forecasts predicted around 255 to 295 seats for the National Rally and its allies and therefore a high probability that an absolute majority of 289 seats was within its reach.

However, the tides have started changing for the National Rally with several candidates from the opposition parties notably the left wing and candidates from Macron’s coalition, L’Ensemble withdrawing from the elections in order to block the number of votes for the far right. Because of this, the National Rally risks losing the absolute majority. Election forecasts predict around 200 to 230 seats for the National Rally and its allies; the New Popular Front and the other Leftists can hope for around 165 to 190 seats and L’Ensemble or the “Macronists” around 120 to 140 seats.

What happens if no one secures a majority?

If a political bloc obtains an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the Prime Minister in principle is chosen from this absolute majority. If the National Rally’s victory is absolute, its blue-eyed boy, the 28-year-old “fledgling”, Jordan Bardella will undoubtedly stand for PM.

The situation becomes more complicated if no political camp has an absolute majority. In 2022, Emmanuel Macron's presidential camp won 246 seats, making it by far the largest group in the National Assembly, but far from obtaining an absolute majority.

This kind of situation is called having relative majority. However, this did not hinder him from forming a government and sustaining it for two years, because the opposition parties from the left, right and the far right never managed to join forces to oust him.

Macron, however, has resorted 23 times to Article 49.3 of the Constitution to bypass the Parliament. He has also faced several votes of no confidence, a vote that can cause the government to resign. Several options would then be available to Macron, who appoints the Prime Minister in the wake of a new relative majority. A member from a relatively majority group in the Assembly could also be appointed as PM. Bardella of the National Rally has nevertheless stated that he would not run for the post of Prime Minister if his party did not obtain an absolute majority.

If Macron appoints a figure from the New Popular Front, an anti-RN coalition could then see the light of day, even if many ambiguities surround it. With neither a clear majority nor an alliance, the head of state could in theory, also have the possibility of appointing a ``technical" government, composed of experts from different fields responsible for ensuring the continuity of the state.

However in reality, the fact that this government is subject to constant votes of no confidence strips its scope of action to a bare minimum. This nature of this kind of government would be only to ensure the continuity of the State.

Similarly if Macron decides that the current Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal (35) stays put, he will never be certain of obtaining a government capable of surviving a vote of no confidence.

When will Emmanuel Macron appoint a new government?

Article 8 of the Constitution says: "The President of the Republic appoints the Prime Minister. [...] On the proposal of the Prime Minister, he appoints the other members of the Government and terminates their functions"; However there is no time limit for these actions.

Can Emmanuel Macron dissolve the National Assembly again?

Emmanuel Macron can dissolve the National Assembly again. However, he is limited by Article 12 of the Constitution which stipulates that a new dissolution cannot be carried out "in the year" following legislative elections. The President of the Republic will therefore have to patiently wait till the summer of 2025 to dissolve the lower house of Parliament yet again.

Can Emmanuel Macron resign?

The young and ambitious President does not intend resigning in the near future and he has repeatedly ruled out any possibility of resignation even if he faces a crushing defeat in the elections of l’Assemblée Nationale. In theory of course nothing in the Constitution prevents him from doing so. Article 7 of the Constitution stipulates that the President of the Senate or the Upper House shall provisionally exercise the functions of the President of the Republic in case the President resigns. A new election must then be organised at most thirty-five days after the resignation of the President.

With so many ifs and buts, the only certainty for now is that July 18 will see the opening of this new legislature with its first plenary session when the 577 deputies will vote by secret ballot for the new President of l’Assemblée Nationale. The current President of the National Assembly is Yaël Braun-Pivet (53) who herself had disapproved of Macron’s June 9 decision to dissolve the Assembly.