Ahead of share market: Factors to consider before trading begins next week

It was a very short three-day week which had trading on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday last week. The good part was that markets gained on all three days with the bulk of the gains coming on Wednesday. While this would be the third consecutive weekly gain, the momentum of the previous week was certainly missing.

Markets last week

BSE SENSEX gained 841.45 points or 1.43 per cent to close at 59,832.97 points while NIFTY gained 239.40 points or 1.38 per cent to close at 17,599.15 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.30 per cent, 1.28 per cent and 1.36 per cent respectively. BSE MIDCAP was up 1.19 per cent while BSE SMALL CAP gained 2.85 per cent.

Rupee

The Indian Rupee gained 29 paisa or 0.35 per cent to close at Rs 81.88 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions. Dow gained 211.14 points or 0.63 per cent to close at 33,485.29 points.

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged

RBI in its bi-monthly policy meeting decided to keep repo rates unchanged. It mentioned that it's just a pause and that the rates may be raised going forward. Very clearly the difference in inflation in India and the US and the issues being faced by the two economies have come out. Repo rate remains unchanged at 6.75 per cent.

The week ahead would be interesting with there being four days of trading and Friday being a holiday in India alone on occasion of Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti. This would lead to squaring up of positions on Thursday depending on which way the markets have moved during the week.

Earnings

TCS would be declaring results on Wednesday (April 12) followed by Infosys on Thursday (April 13) and HDFC Bank on Saturday (April 15). The growth is expected to be driven by the banking and financial services and auto sectors whereas the metals and mining sectors may see a fall in commodities and low realisation.

CPI Inflation

The consumer price inflation data that is the measurement of changes in prices of a basket of goods and services will be released on Wednesday. With the moderation in food inflation, against 6.4 per cent in February the CPI is likely to see a drop of 6 per cent in March, whereas the core inflation is expected to be around 5.9-6 per cent.

Industry production data

The industry production data for February is also expected to be released on Wednesday while the WPI inflation data and balance of trade for March will be released on April 14.

US Inflation and FOMC Minutes

US Inflation numbers and FOMC minutes are expected to be released on April 12. According to the forecast by Trading Economics, the overall inflation is expected to be around 5.3 per cent against 6 per cent in the February, whereas the core inflation is expected to be steady at 5.5 per cent.

Given the signs of cooling labor markets and weaker than expected economic data, the FOMC minutes for the last month that is to be released by the board of governors of the Federal Reserve will be watched closely by the investors.

Oil prices

Crude oil prices in the last week reached a months high with Brent crude futures rising to over $85 a barrel and WTI crude falling to $80.46 a barrel. But towards the end of the week the gains were capped after weak US economic data increased fear over demand outlook.

With inputs from IANS