With 2024 nearing, Kasba win might be too early to rejoice for MVA

Kasba or Kasba Peth area in Pune, Maharashtra, has a special historical and political relevance. It is believed to be among the first settlements in the area, hosts the local deity Kasba Ganapati, and has two of the region’s best-known landmarks – Shaniwarwada which was the citadel of the Peshwas and the Lal Mahal where Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj spent his early years.

It is also among the cradles of Brahmin and upper-caste culture which perhaps made the nascent Bharatiya Janata Party in the early 1980s to contest the Maharashtra assembly election from here. It won, and since then, managed to retain the seat in most elections with a Brahmin candidate thereafter till this week when a quiet non-Brahmin Ravindra Dhangekar scored a seemingly impossible victory. 

Dhangekar's victory

Dhangekar, a former Shiv Sena man who spent a few years with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, was the candidate of the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) formed by the Congress, Nationalist Congress Party, and Shiv Sena in 2019. He might have won, certainly garnered a large chunk of votes, as an independent candidate but the MVA leaders were astute in selecting him to contest against the electoral machine and might of the BJP. Given its record and resources, including constant presence and monitoring by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and the party’s state president besides cabinet ministers – even union Home Minister Amit Shah camped in Pune for a few days on a “private visit” – the defeat of its candidate Hemant Rasne by more than 11,040 votes would hurt. 

The win has bolstered the sagging spirit with the coalition partners of MVA as well as the stature of Congress president Nana Patole who personally supervised the selection of the candidate and the campaign. Snatching the BJP’s fortress away is a shot in the arm – the only good news – after Sena’s Eknath Shinde rebelled in June last year, brought down Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government, and then seized or stole the Sena from the Thackerays. Dhangekar’s win would have sounded sweet to Uddhav Thackeray. However, to read this as the beginning of the resurgence of MVA would be a case of over-analysis and over-optimism. The Kasba Peth win has an important symbolic significance, and has proved that a combined and committed opposition can successfully take on the BJP, but to believe that it would trigger more “Kasba Peths” across the state would be wishful thinking. The MVA needs to iron out ideological differences between partners and work out a common message for the electorate to be able to dent the BJP’s prospects in 2024; it also needs to acknowledge that the BJP’s refusal to put up a Brahmin candidate cost the party its traditional votes. For now, Kasba Peth is a sweet victory for the MVA but it must have a plan for 2024 to capitalize on it.