Will There Be A Trumpian Effect On Dhaka’s Politics?

The election of Donald Trump as the president-elect of the most powerful nation in the world has changed power equations in many capitals of the world, but in none is there such elation and dismay at the same time as among those who are members of the power elite of Dhaka.

The army-backed government of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus and its mostly Islamist supporters are among those who quickly changed their loyalty away from the American democrats and the Clinton Foundation which has been backing them to welcome the US right-wing leader they feared most.

Their sullen mood as they sent formal messages of congratulations to the Trump administration was more than evident, both in televised talk shows dissecting this change in world politics and in the scurry of commentaries by argumentative Bangladeshis on social media.

However, both the Awami League led by ousted leader Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Begum Zia were exultant at this turn of events as they smelled an opportunity to reverse what they claim was a “colour revolution” aided by the Biden administration-led American deep state to put in place a friend of the Clinton family, supported by a bunch of Islamists masquerading as students leaders.

Continuing corruption, an exorbitant price spiral coupled with rise in joblessness, attacks on common citizens, increasing lawlessness, and radical Islamisation of the country seems to have alarmed the general public and this has given some hope to those who were either ousted from governance or kept out of the new regime.

Besides these dark clouds, the problem for Yunus, who was known for being markedly pro-Democratic, is that days before he was elected as the 47th President of the United States, Trump had called out his regime for its twin primary failings — inability or disinterest in protecting the weak and bringing stability to the nation of 160 million people.

Donald Trump had declared through his X post: “I strongly condemn the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians, and other minorities who are getting attacked and looted by mobs in Bangladesh, which remains in a total state of chaos.”

The underlined message was that Yunus had failed to protect fellow citizens who were from minority religious groups and that Bangladesh, one of the world’s most populous states, had descended into chaos, which could create problems for other nations in times to come.

Perhaps hinting at his plans for handling South Asia in the same post, Trump also spoke of strengthening his engagement with the Narendra Modi administration in New Delhi, which has been quite frosty towards the new regime in Dhaka.

The president-elect’s exact words were, “we will also strengthen our great partnership with India and my good friend, Prime Minister Modi.” This was certainly music to the ears of those seated at Raisina Hill, smarting as they had been at a regime change under their very nose in Bangladesh.

At the same time the Trumpian heraldry was anything but musical for those running Dhaka. Trump’s disruptive message created a sensation in Dhaka with commentators, politicians and diplomats scurrying to change sides and stances.

Anti-India elements in Bangladesh have traditionally depended either on the US as they did during the 1971 war of liberation or the 1975 coup against Sheikh Mujib or on the Chinese-Pakistani axis. Their biggest fear is that India will emerge as USA’s local policeman in this part of Asia during the Trump administration. With Pakistan in disarray because of its own internal political and economic troubles and a festering insurgency in Balochistan besides border clashes with Afghanistan, this group in Dhaka can expect little or no help from that South Asian nation.

The victory of American-backed rebels in northern Myanmar and the expected pressure on China by the incoming Trump administration might well mean Beijing too will have far less time for the muddle-headed lot running Dhaka at the current juncture.

Under the circumstances India, which in any case has to be factored in by any Bangladeshi ruler given its geography, economic and military leverage, may be far more powerful if not troublesome in a Trump-led world.

Think tanks in Bangladesh with obvious support from the Yunus government have started inviting Indian strategic analysts for “dialogues”, a form of track 2 diplomacy, to send the message that the current dispensation was willing to change its policies and try be far more friendlier towards India and more liberal towards minorities who have been at the receiving end of the “revolution” till now.

In the initial euphoria of regime change, the Yunus government had been extremely critical of India. At the same time, widespread attacks on journalists, minority community members and Awami leaguers besides their arrest on trumped up charges of murder were common in the first months after the August coup.

Student leaders at the helm of affairs spoke of a “New Republic” which in essence would be an Islamist one, where minorities and liberal citizens would find their lives more difficult. There was also talk of a new religious police force akin to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A few hotheads even advocated severing India’s links to the northeast through some form of military action, a threat which no one really ever took seriously.

After last week’s US election results, while more responsible members of the Bangladesh regime tried to signal they wanted better relations with India and the new Trump administration, some of those in power seemed to decide they had a window of opportunity till President Trump took over in January and their agenda of bringing about “fundamental changes” including rapid Islamisation should best be followed through now in a hurry, before time ran out,

A surprising attack on minority traders in Chittagong, Bangladesh’s main port in a densely populated bazaar where mostly Hindus reside happened last Friday in which both Islamist students as well as regular army personnel took part. This was perhaps a first since 1971. Till now attacks on minorities were orchestrated by political or religious parties but never by the regular army.

Analysts believe this was a bid to send the message that Islamisation would be carried through before the new Trump administration settled down and focused on a country which for it was an outlying and not so important Asian nation.

How history plays out in the months ahead will determine not only the future of Bangladesh — whether it would be the secular, progressive nation that its founding fathers had envisaged or whether it would follow the example of Pakistan or some of the more troubled West Asian nations.

But more importantly for the region, this game-changer period would also decide whether it would exist as a beacon for development as it did during the last decade or so or whether it would be radicalised nation in the heart of South Asia exporting both refugees and militants not only to the rest of the sub-continent but the entire world where the Bangladeshi diaspora is spread from the US in the west to Malaysia in the east and from Scandinavia in the north to South Africa in the south.

The writer is former head of PTI’s eastern region network