The Deepening Crisis In India-Canada Relations

India-Canada relations, strained since the June 18, 2023 killing of HS Nijjar, faced a meltdown after PM Justin Trudeau’s deposition before the Foreign Interference Commission. Like in any spat, both sides made mistakes, letting domestic politics fuel diplomatic misunderstanding.

Trudeau’s India visit in 2018 revealed core differences over the handling of the eight-lakh-strong Sikh diaspora. The Canadian high commissioner’s dinner invite to a person with past criminal charges set the negative tone that persists till today. India lays the entire blame for pro-Khalistan activities in Canada on Ottawa. Canada sees peaceful political activism, however raucous, as freedom of speech. However, since the Nijjar killing the threats of physical harm to Indian diplomats in Canada could hardly be justified as public steam-letting.

Since his 2021 re-election Trudeau’s Liberal Party has 153 members in a 338-member parliament. He required the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 25 members, led by Jagmeet Singh with pro-Sikh orientation. Even though the NDP withdrew support to Trudeau, when the opposition filed a no-confidence motion last month it voted to save the government. Trudeau’s term runs till October 2025.

The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson lashed out at Canada on October 17, that rather than using Lawrence Bishnoi gang members to target Sikh activists in Canada, India has sought the extradition of 26 individuals, including Bishnoi gang members. Commenting on Trudeau telling the Commission that he believes in one India, the MEA spokesperson said there is a “gap between action and words”.

India has alleged ab initio that Canada leveled charges without proof. The Indian media mostly bought the argument that Trudeau conceded before the Commission that he had intelligence but not evidence. The facts are at variance with such selective quotes.

India erred in treating the Nijjar killing in Canada as separate from the attempted murder of G S Pannun in the US. While India ridiculed and angrily rejected whatever Canadian leaders or government said, it engaged and quietly accepted US finger-pointing. The two plots, however, are interlinked and hence the persistent US insistence that India must cooperate with Canada to investigate.

A clue to the linkage lies in the sequence of events. The US were onto Nikhil Gupta recruiting assassins in the US to kill Pannun well before the Canadian episode. On June 9, 2023, nine days before Nijjar’s murder in Surrey, Canada, American Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) had video-recorded advance money transfer in a car in the US. The agents masquerading as killers-on-hire had also audio-taped the conversations with Gupta’s handlers in India. The Americans knew that a grand plot to kill Khalistan-propounding diaspora members was afoot well before the Canadians detected it.

Hence the Indian refrain that the Canadians gave no proof misses the point. The proof was not shared by the US till they managed to grab Nikhil Gupta in the Czech Republic at the end of June 2023. A Czech court allowing his extradition to the US means enough proof was presented by the US. The shocking “Wanted by the FBI” notice, just out, regarding a R&AW official Vikash Yadav, describes the money transfer in New York and the conspiracy. The sub-heading notes the charges as “Murder For Hire etc”. This happened after an Indian official two-member team briefed the US about the suspect having been already sacked.

The links of the murder in Canada to the New York conspiracy are evident in the taped conversations available with the US investigators. Thus when Trudeau now says he had intelligence but not proof he is referring to the initial phase. Thereafter the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) conducted its own enquiry and arrested some suspects. The charge that Bishnoi gang members were used to target Khalistan supporters in Canada follows from that.

The solidarity shown by Five-Eyes allies of US and Canada indicates that India has failed to isolate Canada. Increased India-Canada confrontation merely feeds the otherwise fringe elements in the Sikh diaspora supporting Khalistan. No credible analyst or politician abroad will believe that Vikash Yadav conceived a conspiracy of this range without approval of higher-ups in his organisation.

Canada has, however, overreached by naming senior Indian diplomats as co-conspirators. Keeping an eye on the diaspora, engaging sensible elements in it and attempting to win over alienated members of the Sikh diaspora is not espionage or forbidden acts. Linking that information to any misguided attempt to eliminate troublesome elements is illogical. The Trudeau government should have avoided that, whatever the perceived advantages in domestic politics.

However, the story is unlikely to end here. The New York trial of Nikhil Gupta may reveal more details of the conspiracy, which could keep buffeting India’s relations with the US and Canada. The current mess is due to the Indian government’s mishandling of the Sikh diaspora in Anglophone nations, now numbering over two million. Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs fresh advisers and a new outreach to the Indian diaspora of all faiths.

KC Singh is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs