It's Pakistan vs Pakistan As Imran Khan's Arrest Sparks Fear Of Civil War In Crisis-Hit Country

When the system is completely politicized and vendetta is the name of the game, the arrest of Imran Khan, former prime minister of Pakistan, on Saturday, 7th August does not come as a surprise. In fact it was widely expected. He has been sentenced to three years of imprisonment for illegally selling state gifts. Since this conviction is for criminal offence, it means disqualification from contesting elections or holding public office.  

In a way, this seems to be the evolving political culture of South Asia. Here though some countries have functioning democracy, the democratic culture is sadly missing. Not only this, there is a blatant use of religion in democratic polity. In many countries religion is an easy tool to mobilize as well as polarize society for voting purpose. Recently the terrorist attack that was carried out on last Sunday at a political rally of a leading Islamic party in Pakistan’s Khar, a small town near the Afghan border in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, falls into this category. Pakistan is likely to hold general elections in October/November 2023. These are sure signs that the impending elections will be contested in a highly charged manner.

At least 50 people were killed and nearly 200 wounded in a suicide bomb attack. The attack targeted the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl [JUI-F] party which is a partner in the ruling coalition. It is headed by an influential firebrand cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman. As elections are likely to be announced soon, all political parties are now in election mode. It is worth noting that the blast coincided with a visit to the country by a senior delegation of Chinese officials. The delegation had top leaders like Vice-premier Mr. He Lifeng.

It is easy to notice that there is a sharp increase in such attacks since the Taliban came to power in the neighbouring Afghanistan in August 2021. Consequently Pakistan’s home-grown Taliban group, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] has directed its resources against security officials, including law and order officials. It must also be noted that the TTP pledges allegiance to Afghanistan’s Taliban though it is not directly part of it.

The year 2023 seem to be especially bloody for Pakistan. In January, a TTP suicide bomber blew himself up during the afternoon prayers in a mosque in Peshawar. This incidence killed over 100 people and injured 200 others. Such attacks are not new to the TTP culture. In 2014 it had orchestrated an attack on Army Public School in Peshawar in which over 125 students were killed. Geographically these attacks normally happen in the regions abutting Afghanistan. The latest attack in Bajaur district which is one of the seven remote districts bordering Afghanistan. These districts were once a focal point in the global war on terrorism.

Such events regularly occur in Pakistan which raises the question about its future. Some scholars argue that Pakistan is likely to implode. There have been movements in Pakistan which weaken it from inside.  Look at the movement for separate Balochstan. It has been over 70 years that the Baloch people have been fighting for independence. These days they occasionally get the audience of the international community. Their cause has been taken up by the United Nations. The Parliament of United Kingdom has recognized the freedom struggle of Balochstan. 

As if this was not enough, now Pakistan has to reckon with the forces supported by the Taliban. This outfit, created by late Mullah Omar, was an unusual one. It was born in 1993 and since then it witnessed the rise and rise. Today it is the ruling body in Afghanistan. They want to run a modern nation-state based on Sharia. Sooner than later the mood in Afghanistan spills over to Pakistan.

Historically speaking Pakistan has always witnessed the rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism. It could be pointed out that it all started from the mid-1970s onwards. Not only this, Pakistan’s discourse was dominated by the orthodoxy. Though the Ahamadiya, an Islamic sect, was banned in 1974, the demand for this was in the air since 1953. The next battle was won by the orthodoxy when Pakistan managed to frame its constitution in 1956 and declared itself as Islamic Republic of Pakistan. In 1958 Pakistan suffered its first military coup under Ayub Khan. He wanted to introduce some modern elements in Pakistan’s constitution. Ayub wanted to minimize the role of the religious elite. The Presidential Order of 1962 actually dropped the word ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan’. However he was forced to retreat under tremendous pressure from religious leaders and reinstated the word ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan’ by introducing the First Constitution the Amendment Bill 1963. Even in the 21st century Pakistan has to live with such dangers.

The latest blast has brought to mind the fears that most such bloody events are likely to take place in the coming months. Pakistan is going through political chaos prompted by the ousting Imran Khan as prime minster in April 2022. It is reported that the Islamic State [IS] has owned the responsibility of the latest blast. The local chapter of the IS group has in the past targeted JUI-F rallies and leaders.

In today’s international politics, China is the only all-weather friend of Pakistan. China has been supporting it on international fora.  And yet, Chinese officials and workers stationed in Pakistan do not feel safe in Pakistan.  In November 2018 there was a vicious attack on the Chinese consulate stationed in Karachi by the members of the Baloch Liberation Army [BLA].  This upset the Chinese authorities,

These events put together, create an uneasy picture of Pakistan today. More often than not, it is Pakistan v/s Pakistan, a civil-war like situation, not at all conducive to socio-economic growth. India needs to watch the situation continuously as we share 3400 kms- long border with Pakistan.

Published on: Sunday, August 06, 2023, 11:29 AM IST