Is Sheikh Hasina’s Exit The Biggest Strategic Shock For India?

Developments in Bangladesh are certainly not good news for India or its other neighbours. What may appear as Bangla Spring or Banglash (backlash) started as a student demonstration over government job quotas and it grew so wild that ultimately Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was forced to flee the country and subsequently the Parliament had to be dissolved. Hasina found a temporary shelter in India, Country being a trusted ally but her continued stay can raise questions on Modi government, his foreign policies.

First, the country’s opposition, the BNP and the Jamat-E-Islami are seeing a revival amid the protests and violence in the country. Both parties have historically advocated for close ties with Pakistan and China and have consistently violated India’s red lines. Over the last decade, they have even furthered nationalist and religious sentiments against India by accusing Delhi of supporting Hasina. Protests by the BNP, the JI and hardline affiliates like Hefazat-e-Islam (HI) against PM Modi’,s visit to Bangladesh in 2021, the recent “India Out” campaign supported by BNP leaders, and the criticism towards the MoU on railway connectivity indicate the Bangladesh opposition’s continued scepticism towards India and its initiatives.

Most recently, their cadres and supporters stormed the Narsingdi jail and freed around 800 prisoners, some of whom are trained militants. Soon after Hasina’s resignation, they targeted the country’s Hindu minority community and Awami League supporters. These developments not only underscore the opposition’s lack of concern for Delhi’s sensitivities but also point to the grim possibility of an exodus and of a revival of Delhi’s scepticism for Bangladesh. The Indian National Security Advisor’s meeting with Hasina after she fled to India demonstrates Delhi’s security concerns about the ongoing developments.

There is an element of growing mistrust as well. The students and protesters opposing Hasina have often accused India of supporting her regime. To what extent this rhetoric and narrative will grow depends on India’s response to the ongoing developments. In fact, several activists are already alleging that India will deploy its troops to undo their “hard-won freedom”. Such mistrust is bound to make it difficult for any government to foster strong ties with India and deepen economic engagements.

With the army having taken control over the country’s administration, questions are being raised about whether the force would be able to maintain stability, especially given its history in the early years of Bangladesh’s formation. With an angry populace involved in arsoning and violence throughout the country today, some have even expressed concern and dissatisfaction about a military administration. If this anger and disenchantment persist, it will lead to political and economic instability, impacting Bangladesh’s economy, investments, and connectivity efforts. This could also have spillover implications for India.

The army has already dissolved the current parliament and establish an interim government in consultation with political parties and stakeholders. However, the fact that the latest such consultations on August 5 included student organisations and members of the JI, the HI, and the BNP but excluded the Awami League is not very reassuring for Delhi. The release of BNP supremo and Hasina’s arch-rival Khaleda Zia, within hours of the former’s ouster, raises similar concerns on the direction, composition, and intention of a potential interim government.

Hasina’s ouster is one of the biggest strategic shocks for New Delhi in recent years. Her government’s economic and foreign policy fostered a strong bond with India and made it a hub of regional connectivity and integration. With her ouster, all of this is at risk today. This is not to say that it would be entirely impossible for Delhi to find a way to work with a new regime, but any such initiative would be difficult given that it will require building trust and respecting each other’s redlines — not an easy task given the history and politics of the two countries. Road ahead for India will surely not be easy. It will depend on the ensuing power structure going forward and the role the army plays in the democratic polity which is usually preferred by the people. The Indian government has issued a high alert along its border with Bangladesh. Indians have been asked to avoid travelling to Bangladesh until further notice and this directive clearly shows India is watchful.

Neelu Vyas is a senior television anchor and digital content creator. Twitter: @neeluopines

Published on: Tuesday, August 06, 2024, 07:39 PM IST