THE ROAD TO DELHI PASSES THROUGH U. P. ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR APRIL/ MAY 2012. MAYAWATI 'S LETTER ASKING FOR DIVISION OF U. P. HAS SET THE CAT AMONG THE PIGEONS. RATAN MANI LAL TRIES TO MAKE SENSE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING IN U. P. AND WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT.

Let us consider some unusual aspects of Indias one of the biggest and most populous state.

œ Uttar Pradesh chief minister and Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati is perhaps the only chief minister in the country who does not attend any meeting convened by the Prime Minister. Uttar Pradesh is the only state in the country where no migrant from any other state in India is ever considered an outsider.

œ With a population of more than 20 crore and a geographical area of more than 2.5 lakh square kilometres, it is a country within a country and an administrators nightmare.

œ As an entity, it would emerge as the fifth largest " nation" in the world.

It, therefore, makes for good common sense to have smaller and more manageable states carved out of the behemoth that is U. P. Going by this argument, there should have been no problem with the recent recommendation by U. P. chief minister Mayawati to divide the state into four smaller units. But the timing of the move and the clever politics behind it have made it suspect in the eyes of all political parties.

Assembly elections are to be held in the state before April- May next year, and while most other parties are still groping in the dark for a substantial poll plank, the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party ( BSP) is plagued by antiincumbency and serious charges of misgovernance and corruption.

Six ministers of the Mayawati cabinet have lost their jobs on corruption or related issues, while at least two are facing a probe by the Lokayukta. As for charges of corruption and squandering public money on huge memorials and stone- paved parks, Mayawati has just one argument: she is singled out because she is a Dalit. She takes her running feud with the Congress and the UPA government to ridiculous lengths - often blaming the Centre for smallest things such as bad roads in Lucknow.

The state government actually put up a roadside notice board in Lucknow some months ago that mentioned in bold letters that the road was in such a bad potholed condition because its maintenance was the Central governments responsibility! In no other non- Congress ruled state has Rahul Gandhi faced a more direct and personal challenge than in U. P. When he launched his partys election campaign on November 14 from Phulpur, it was Jawaharlal Nehrus birth anniversary and it was the place from where Nehru contested his first Lok Sabha election. But instead of deriving mileage from the historicity of the occasion, Rahul made the outrageous statement equating migrants from U. P. with beggars in Maharashtra. The statement, even Congress leaders admit privately, was quite uncalled for. The next day saw Mayawati announcing her governments recommendation regarding the states division.

Clearly, the early rounds of the pre- election political battle are being fought between the BSP and the Congress while the BJP and the SP are busy in their cross- country yatras. The BSP government in U. P. has elevated the state- Centre dispute to an upper caste versus Dalit row, and loses no opportunity to rubbish the claims and achievements of the Congress regarding U. P. Understandably, the immense clout that U. P. enjoys now will be considerably depleted once it is divided. The largest share of MPs ( 80) and MLAs ( 403) come from the State. In 2009, the U. P. Chief Minister was thought to be in the running for Prime Minister - and only because of the massive size and population of U. P and its political influence. Then why is Mayawati pushing the demand? Clearly, she stands to gain politically from the move as her core constituency - Dalits - is evenly spread throughout the state, with 18.2% presence in western UP ( the proposed Paschim or Harit Pradesh), 21.15% in eastern UP ( Purvanchal), 25.14% in Bundelkhand and 26.1% in central UP ( Awadh Pradesh). She can also hope to benefit from regional sentiments that have been raised time and again in favour of a division.

The Samajwadi Party is uncomfortable with the division idea as its core Yadav vote at 8.7% is not uniform, with major concentrations in the west ( Etawah, Mainouri etc) and east ( Azamgarh, Ghazipur, Ballia etc) that will split once the state is divided. This could also lead to Muslims deserting the party once it is perceived as having weakened. Mulayams bête- noire Amar Singh has come out strongly in support of the division move, adding to the discomfort of the SP. For the BJP, the issue of Ram temple at Ayodhya is no longer working its magic, although its influence in eastern- central parts of the state has perceptibly improved. On the states division, the party appears to be still weighing words.

Uma Bharti, who is touring U. P. as part of the BJPs election campaign, has expressed fears of a population imbalance with western U. P. being dominated by Muslims.

The Congress, too, is non- committal despite earlier having expressed its support for a separate Bundelkhand, and its newfound ally Rashtriya Lok Dal led by Ajit Singh being a strong campaigner for a separate state in western U. P. It is believed by some that the move betrays Mayawatis nervousness over not being able to retain power. Today, the consensus in U. P. is that she will not be able to repeat the success of 2007, and the BSP can at best emerge as the single largest party.

Among the proposed states, while western U. P. has the distinct advantage of being comparatively more developed with places like Noida, Meerut, Moradabad, Agra and Bareilly, Bundelkhand and eastern U. P. may start off as laggards and may take decades to come up.

In present- day U. P., it is well- near impossible to meet senior officials or ministers in Lucknow, and meeting the chief minister in person is a rarity for even the most well- connected politician in the state.

Mayawati had first raised the issue of division of Uttar Pradesh in the assembly on October 31, 2007. The demand for creation of a State Reorganisation Commission, according to her, is indicative of the Congress double game as there was no role of the Commission in the creation of Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh.

The battle for U. P. is set to get fierce and the people are prepared to expect the unexpected.